Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone Rotten Tomatoes score
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$8
20 contracts
Closes
Dec 28, 2026
103 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Blade Runner 2099 Rotten Tomatoes score” vs “Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone Rotten Tomatoes score”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Blade Runner 2099 Rotten Tomatoes score
Blade Runner 2099 Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 70
KXRTTV-BLA-70
Blade Runner 2099 Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 85
KXRTTV-BLA-85
Blade Runner 2099 Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 90
KXRTTV-BLA-90
Blade Runner 2099 Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 80
KXRTTV-BLA-80
Blade Runner 2099 Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 75
KXRTTV-BLA-75
Blade Runner 2099 Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 65
KXRTTV-BLA-65
Blade Runner 2099 Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 60
KXRTTV-BLA-60
Blade Runner 2099 Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 55
KXRTTV-BLA-55
Blade Runner 2099 Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 50
KXRTTV-BLA-50
Blade Runner 2099 Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 45
KXRTTV-BLA-45
Cluster 2
Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone Rotten Tomatoes score
Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 45
KXRTTV-HAR-45
Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 90
KXRTTV-HAR-90
Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 85
KXRTTV-HAR-85
Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 80
KXRTTV-HAR-80
Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 75
KXRTTV-HAR-75
Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 70
KXRTTV-HAR-70
Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 65
KXRTTV-HAR-65
Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 60
KXRTTV-HAR-60
Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 55
KXRTTV-HAR-55
Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 50
KXRTTV-HAR-50
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone will achieve a Rotten Tomatoes score above a specific threshold (the exact threshold varies by contract, ranging from 45 to 55 points). The current 20% probability suggests low conviction that the film will reach higher score levels. Key drivers include the critical reception patterns of recent fantasy adaptations, the original film's legacy reception versus modern critical standards, and how contemporary reviewers evaluate family entertainment relative to prestige cinema. The resolution depends entirely on the film's official Rotten Tomatoes score once sufficient critic reviews accumulate and the platform publishes its final aggregate rating. Market activity shows minimal recent trading volume on these contracts, indicating limited liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads.
- ›Historical Rotten Tomatoes scores for Harry Potter films range from 80% (Prisoner of Azkaban) to 90% (Goblet of Fire), suggesting any new release could plausibly exceed 55%
- ›The threshold contracts show declining probabilities at higher score levels (55% scores 41¢ vs 45% scores 55¢), indicating market uncertainty about whether the film will land in upper-percentile critical reception
- ›Zero 24-hour trading volume suggests these markets lack active price discovery and may not reflect real-time consensus
- ›Critical standards for family fantasy films have shifted since the original 2001 release, affecting comparison benchmarks
- ›The film requires sufficient critic reviews to generate a final Rotten Tomatoes aggregate score, and timing of review publication will determine when resolution occurs
What moved the line
- Sep 12Above 65↓70pp90→20¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 11Above 65↑59pp31→90¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 11Above 55↑55pp41→96¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12Above 50↓40pp70→30¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10Above 55↓35pp76→41¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 66% · 3d
- Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 64% · 3d
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.25last 84% · 5d
- Will PL win the 2026 Brazilian Chamber of Deputies electionslast 48% · 5d
- Will PSD hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial electionslast 23% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.