Will South Carolina total container volume for 2026 be above 2.5 million TEUs
Leader sits at 93% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 85%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 2.2 million TEUs
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
85¢
Above 2.3 million TEUs
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$7K
modest
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will South Carolina total container volume for 2026 be above 2
Will South Carolina total container volume for 2026 be above 2.6 million TEUs?: Above 2.6 million TEUs
KXSCPORTTEU-27JAN31-T2.6
Will South Carolina total container volume for 2026 be above 2.5 million TEUs?: Above 2.5 million TEUs
KXSCPORTTEU-27JAN31-T2.5
Will South Carolina total container volume for 2026 be above 2.7 million TEUs?: Above 2.7 million TEUs
KXSCPORTTEU-27JAN31-T2.7
Will South Carolina total container volume for 2026 be above 2.4 million TEUs?: Above 2.4 million TEUs
KXSCPORTTEU-27JAN31-T2.4
Will South Carolina total container volume for 2026 be above 2.3 million TEUs?: Above 2.3 million TEUs
KXSCPORTTEU-27JAN31-T2.3
Will South Carolina total container volume for 2026 be above 2.2 million TEUs?: Above 2.2 million TEUs
KXSCPORTTEU-27JAN31-T2.2
Analysis
This measures whether South Carolina's seaports will handle more than 2.5 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of containerized cargo during 2026. The 26% probability reflects skepticism that the state will reach this threshold. Port throughput depends primarily on regional import-export demand, shipping line routing decisions, and competitive pressure from neighboring ports like Savannah. The probability spread across contracts (93% for 2.2M TEUs down to 26% for 2.5M TEUs) suggests consensus that South Carolina will likely exceed 2.2 million but faces uncertainty reaching higher volumes. Year-end 2026 port statistics, typically published in Q1 2027, will definitively resolve the outcome. Current shipping patterns, terminal capacity utilization, and any announced infrastructure expansions will materially influence whether volumes trending toward or above 2.5 million materialize.
- ›South Carolina ports handled approximately 2.1-2.2 million TEUs in recent years; reaching 2.5M represents 12-19% growth over baseline
- ›Port of Charleston competes directly with Port of Savannah and other Southeast terminals for market share; routing decisions by major carriers affect throughput allocation
- ›Terminal capacity constraints and labor availability at Charleston limit near-term volume growth independent of demand
- ›Year-to-date 2026 volume data through August will indicate trajectory, with final annual figures published in early 2027
- ›Announced or funded port expansion projects (berths, cranes, rail access) affect ability to handle incremental volume above current operational baselines
What moved the line
- Aug 23Above 2.3 million TEUs↑25pp57→82¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 2.3 million TEUs↓24pp81→57¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Above 2.4 million TEUs↑24pp33→57¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23Above 2.5 million TEUs↓14pp30→16¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 2.4 million TEUs↓13pp57→44¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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