Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 11.5% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026
Leader sits at 90% across 13 bound outcomes, runner-up at 89%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 9%
Outcomes
13
winner-take-all
Runner-up
89¢
Above 9.5%
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$106
thin orderbook
Closes
May 26, 2027
276 days
Venue
Kalshi
13 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above
Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 11.5% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026?: Above 11.5%
KXSGA-27FEBMARGIN-11.5
Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 9.5% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026?: Above 9.5%
KXSGA-27FEBMARGIN-9.5
Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 9% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026?: Above 9%
KXSGA-27FEBMARGIN-9
Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 15% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026?: Above 15%
KXSGA-27FEBMARGIN-15
Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 14.5% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026?: Above 14.5%
KXSGA-27FEBMARGIN-14.5
Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 14% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026?: Above 14%
KXSGA-27FEBMARGIN-14
Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 13.5% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026?: Above 13.5%
KXSGA-27FEBMARGIN-13.5
Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 13% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026?: Above 13%
KXSGA-27FEBMARGIN-13
Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 12.5% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026?: Above 12.5%
KXSGA-27FEBMARGIN-12.5
Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 12% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026?: Above 12%
KXSGA-27FEBMARGIN-12
Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 11% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026?: Above 11%
KXSGA-27FEBMARGIN-11
Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 10.5% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026?: Above 10.5%
KXSGA-27FEBMARGIN-10.5
Will Sweetgreen Inc. report Above 10% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026?: Above 10%
KXSGA-27FEBMARGIN-10
Analysis
Prediction markets assess an 94% likelihood that Sweetgreen will achieve above 11.5% restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026. This metric matters because it indicates operational efficiency and unit economics — critical for quick-service restaurant chains. The high probability reflects confidence in Sweetgreen's margin expansion, though markets show less certainty about reaching 12% (74¢) or higher thresholds. Resolution depends on Sweetgreen's fiscal 2026 earnings report, expected in early 2027, which will disclose audited restaurant-level margins. Key drivers include labor cost management amid ongoing wage pressures, menu pricing power relative to input costs, and whether company-wide initiatives to improve throughput and reduce waste materialize. Lower contract prices at 12.5% and 13% suggest marginal diminishing confidence; the 3¢ price on 15.5% indicates the market views sustained high-margin performance as unlikely.
- ›Sweetgreen's actual reported restaurant-level profit margin in fiscal 2026 will be the sole determinant; outcomes are binary once audited results publish in early 2027
- ›Labor costs as a percentage of revenue will be pivotal, given ongoing minimum wage increases and competition for fast-casual restaurant staff
- ›Menu price increases relative to commodity and food costs will determine whether Sweetgreen maintains or expands margins versus fiscal 2025 baseline
- ›Company execution on operational efficiency improvements (throughput, labor scheduling, waste reduction) will affect whether margins reach 12%+ thresholds
- ›The 58% average price across Kalshi contracts reflects meaningful uncertainty despite the 94% headline probability for the 11.5% threshold
What moved the line
- Aug 20Above 10.5%↑7pp40→47¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Above 11.5%↓5pp25→20¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Above 10.5%↑4pp47→51¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Above 11%↑4pp27→31¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Above 13%↑4pp4→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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