SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·12 source contracts·Kalshi 12·refreshed just now·Closes Sep 7, 2026 · 15d

Will Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 113

Leader sits at 93% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 90%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

93%

Above 103

runner-up 90¢leader 93¢

Outcomes

12

winner-take-all

Runner-up

90¢

Above 104

Spread

3pp

contested

24h volume

$465

thin orderbook

Closes

Sep 7, 2026

15 days

Venue

Kalshi

12 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAbove 103: 91% (12 days, 12 points)Above 103: 91% on 2026-08-21Above 104: 88% (12 days, 12 points)Above 104: 88% on 2026-08-21Above 105: 76% (12 days, 12 points)Above 105: 76% on 2026-08-21
Above 10391¢Above 10488¢Above 10576¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 12d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 1

12 contracts$465

Analysis

This probability indicates whether Shake Shack's foot traffic for August 2026 will exceed 113 million visits. Currently priced at 51%, it suggests roughly even odds, with market participants closely bunched between 103-107 million visits across the contract ladder. The narrow spread between contracts indicates uncertainty about the baseline traffic level rather than high confidence in any direction. Key drivers include seasonal dining patterns—August typically shows summer dining strength—and Shake Shack's comparable store traffic trends. The contract clustering around 50 cents across multiple thresholds suggests the market views August 2026 traffic within a relatively tight band. Resolution depends on Shake Shack's actual reported foot traffic data for August 2026, which would typically be disclosed in their quarterly earnings or investor reports. The zero trading volume across all contracts indicates minimal recent market activity, so these prices reflect accumulated expectations rather than fresh information.

  • Shake Shack's year-over-year foot traffic growth or decline through 2026
  • Seasonal summer dining patterns and their impact on August traffic specifically
  • Store count and comparable-store sales trends leading into August 2026
  • Consumer spending and restaurant traffic broadly during summer 2026
  • Timing and content of August 2026 foot traffic disclosure in earnings reports

What moved the line

  • Aug 21Above 10554pp2276¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 21Above 10650pp2171¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 18Above 10548pp7729¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 18Above 10645pp7227¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 21Above 10742pp1961¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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