Will Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 113
Leader sits at 93% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 90%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 103
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
90¢
Above 104
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$465
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 7, 2026
15 days
Venue
Kalshi
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 1
Will Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 108 ?: Above 108
KXSHAKFT-26SEP07-T108
Will Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 107 ?: Above 107
KXSHAKFT-26SEP07-T107
Will Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 111 ?: Above 111
KXSHAKFT-26SEP07-T111
Will Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 110 ?: Above 110
KXSHAKFT-26SEP07-T110
Will Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 114 ?: Above 114
KXSHAKFT-26SEP07-T114
Will Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 113 ?: Above 113
KXSHAKFT-26SEP07-T113
Will Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 112 ?: Above 112
KXSHAKFT-26SEP07-T112
Will Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 109 ?: Above 109
KXSHAKFT-26SEP07-T109
Will Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 106 ?: Above 106
KXSHAKFT-26SEP07-T106
Will Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 105 ?: Above 105
KXSHAKFT-26SEP07-T105
Will Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 104 ?: Above 104
KXSHAKFT-26SEP07-T104
Will Shake Shack Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 103 ?: Above 103
KXSHAKFT-26SEP07-T103
Analysis
This probability indicates whether Shake Shack's foot traffic for August 2026 will exceed 113 million visits. Currently priced at 51%, it suggests roughly even odds, with market participants closely bunched between 103-107 million visits across the contract ladder. The narrow spread between contracts indicates uncertainty about the baseline traffic level rather than high confidence in any direction. Key drivers include seasonal dining patterns—August typically shows summer dining strength—and Shake Shack's comparable store traffic trends. The contract clustering around 50 cents across multiple thresholds suggests the market views August 2026 traffic within a relatively tight band. Resolution depends on Shake Shack's actual reported foot traffic data for August 2026, which would typically be disclosed in their quarterly earnings or investor reports. The zero trading volume across all contracts indicates minimal recent market activity, so these prices reflect accumulated expectations rather than fresh information.
- ›Shake Shack's year-over-year foot traffic growth or decline through 2026
- ›Seasonal summer dining patterns and their impact on August traffic specifically
- ›Store count and comparable-store sales trends leading into August 2026
- ›Consumer spending and restaurant traffic broadly during summer 2026
- ›Timing and content of August 2026 foot traffic disclosure in earnings reports
What moved the line
- Aug 21Above 105↑54pp22→76¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Above 106↑50pp21→71¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Above 105↓48pp77→29¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Above 106↓45pp72→27¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Above 107↑42pp19→61¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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