Will Manchester United win at least 1 trophy in the 2026-27 season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$19
20 contracts
Closes
Jun 15, 2027
267 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Will Manchester” vs “Will Real Madrid win at least”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Manchester
Will Manchester United win at least 1 trophy in the 2026-27 season?: 1+ Trophies
KXSOCCERTROPHIES-27MUN-1
Will Manchester City win at least 3 trophies in the 2026-27 season?: 3+ Trophies
KXSOCCERTROPHIES-27MCI-3
Will Manchester City win at least 2 trophies in the 2026-27 season?: 2+ Trophies
KXSOCCERTROPHIES-27MCI-2
Will Manchester City win at least 1 trophy in the 2026-27 season?: 1+ Trophies
KXSOCCERTROPHIES-27MCI-1
Will Manchester United win at least 3 trophies in the 2026-27 season?: 3+ Trophies
KXSOCCERTROPHIES-27MUN-3
Will Manchester United win at least 2 trophies in the 2026-27 season?: 2+ Trophies
KXSOCCERTROPHIES-27MUN-2
Cluster 2
Will Real Madrid win at least
Will Real Madrid win at least 1 trophy in the 2026-27 season?: 1+ Trophies
KXSOCCERTROPHIES-27RMA-1
Will Real Madrid win at least 4 trophies in the 2026-27 season?: 4 Trophies
KXSOCCERTROPHIES-27RMA-4
Will Real Madrid win at least 3 trophies in the 2026-27 season?: 3+ Trophies
KXSOCCERTROPHIES-27RMA-3
Will Real Madrid win at least 2 trophies in the 2026-27 season?: 2+ Trophies
KXSOCCERTROPHIES-27RMA-2
Cluster 3
Will Tottenham win at least
Will Tottenham win at least 1 trophy in the 2026-27 season?: 1+ Trophies
KXSOCCERTROPHIES-27TOT-1
Will Tottenham win at least 3 trophies in the 2026-27 season?: 3 Trophies
KXSOCCERTROPHIES-27TOT-3
Will Tottenham win at least 2 trophies in the 2026-27 season?: 2+ Trophies
KXSOCCERTROPHIES-27TOT-2
Cluster 4
Will Chelsea win at least
Will Chelsea win at least 1 trophy in the 2026-27 season?: 1+ Trophies
KXSOCCERTROPHIES-27CFC-1
Will Chelsea win at least 3 trophies in the 2026-27 season?: 3 Trophies
KXSOCCERTROPHIES-27CFC-3
Will Chelsea win at least 2 trophies in the 2026-27 season?: 2+ Trophies
KXSOCCERTROPHIES-27CFC-2
Cluster 5
Will Barcelona win at least
Cluster 6
Will Liverpool win at least
Analysis
This market estimates a 25% chance Manchester United will win at least one trophy during the 2026-27 season, meaning either a domestic cup, league title, or European competition. The probability reflects Manchester United's competitive standing relative to other Premier League clubs and their historical performance in cup competitions. Key drivers include the team's squad quality and injury record heading into the season, managerial stability and tactical consistency, and the relative strength of competitors like Arsenal (54% probability) and Chelsea (17%). The 2026-27 season will begin in August 2026, with cup competitions starting shortly after. Resolution will occur through the 2027 summer when all domestic and European tournaments conclude. The low probability relative to Arsenal suggests market participants view United as a rebuild-phase club facing well-resourced rivals.
- ›Manchester United's transfer activity and squad additions in summer 2026 relative to league competitors
- ›Manager's tenure and track record in winning domestic or European trophies at United
- ›Early season performance (August-December 2026) in both league and cup competitions
- ›Injury rates among key players, particularly in midfield and attack
- ›Draw difficulty in cup competitions and head-to-head matchups against top-6 rivals in knockout stages
What moved the line
- Sep 192+ Trophies↓34pp71→37¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 183+ Trophies↑33pp31→64¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 182+ Trophies↑20pp51→71¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 171+ Trophies↑20pp60→80¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 181+ Trophies↓20pp80→60¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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