Will Ramp AI Index OpenAI model adoption rate for August 2026 be above 39%
Leader sits at 90% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 39.3%
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Above 39.7%
Spread
62pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$303
thin orderbook
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
19 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Ramp AI Index OpenAI model adoption rate for September 2026 be above
Will Ramp AI Index OpenAI model adoption rate for September 2026 be above 39.3%?: Above 39.3%
KXOPENADOPT-26OCT17-T39.3
Will Ramp AI Index OpenAI model adoption rate for September 2026 be above 40.5%?: Above 40.5%
KXOPENADOPT-26OCT17-T40.5
Will Ramp AI Index OpenAI model adoption rate for September 2026 be above 40.3%?: Above 40.3%
KXOPENADOPT-26OCT17-T40.3
Will Ramp AI Index OpenAI model adoption rate for September 2026 be above 40.1%?: Above 40.1%
KXOPENADOPT-26OCT17-T40.1
Will Ramp AI Index OpenAI model adoption rate for September 2026 be above 39.9%?: Above 39.9%
KXOPENADOPT-26OCT17-T39.9
Will Ramp AI Index OpenAI model adoption rate for September 2026 be above 39.7%?: Above 39.7%
KXOPENADOPT-26OCT17-T39.7
Will Ramp AI Index OpenAI model adoption rate for September 2026 be above 39.5%?: Above 39.5%
KXOPENADOPT-26OCT17-T39.5
Analysis
This contract measures whether OpenAI model adoption reached above 38.5% on the Ramp AI Index during August 2026. Markets currently assign a 45% probability to this outcome, reflecting uncertainty about adoption velocity in the near term. The primary factors driving this estimate are the frequency and magnitude of new OpenAI model releases, competitive moves by Anthropic and other AI providers, and real-time adoption patterns captured by the Ramp AI Index methodology. Since August 2026 is nearly complete as of the assessment date, the main uncertainty driver is whether final monthly adoption data will cross the 38.5% threshold. The resolution depends on how the Ramp AI Index publishes its end-of-month figure and whether adoption trends stabilize or accelerate in the final days of the month.
- ›Ramp AI Index historical trend for July 2026 and trajectory entering August would indicate proximity to the 38.5% threshold
- ›Timing and impact of any new OpenAI model releases or product announcements during August 2026
- ›Competitive positioning of alternative models (Claude, Gemini, open-source options) and their adoption growth rates in the same period
- ›Ramp AI Index methodology specifics: how adoption is counted, data collection timing, and whether measurements include API usage, application integrations, or other signals
- ›Volume concentration in lower-strike contracts (6¢ at >41.5%) versus the leader contract suggests market skepticism about adoption reaching substantially higher levels
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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