Top USA Song on Spotify on Apr 21, 2026
Leader sits at 59% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 34%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
stupid song
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
34¢
Choosin' Texas
Spread
25pp
contested
24h volume
$268
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 24, 2026
1 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Top USA Song on Spotify on Jun 23, 2026
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that a particular song will rank as the top track on Spotify's USA charts on April 21, 2026. At 88%, the market is expressing high confidence in a specific outcome, though the identity of that song is not specified here. The current level likely reflects either strong recent performance data showing one song's dominance, or limited information causing the market to anchor on a base rate. The main uncertainty factors include competing releases in the weeks leading up to that date, streaming trends that could shift listener preferences, and potential viral or surprise chart entries. The resolution point is fixed—Spotify's official USA chart ranking for that specific date will definitively settle the contract. Key drivers of probability movement would include chart performance through early 2026, new major artist releases, and shifts in streaming velocity as the date approaches.
- ›Spotify's USA daily top song rankings for the 60 days prior to April 21, 2026 will show which track is trending toward that date
- ›Major scheduled music releases from top artists between now and April 2026 could displace current leaders or establish new frontrunners
- ›Year-to-date and March 2026 streaming velocity for the leading candidate will indicate momentum heading into the resolution date
- ›Historical chart volatility patterns show how frequently the #1 song changes, informing whether 88% confidence is calibrated to normal churn
- ›Any artist announcements of surprise releases or high-profile promotional campaigns in early April 2026 could shift the leading contender
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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