Top USA Song on Spotify on Apr 21, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 17% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
17%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$45K
18 contracts
Top contract
93¢
$13K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
17 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Will Olivia” vs “Will Drake be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Olivia
Will Olivia Rodrigo be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026?: Olivia Rodrigo
KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26JUN01-OLII
Will Olivia Dean be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026?: Olivia Dean
KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26JUN01-OLI
Cluster 2
Will Drake be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026
Will Drake be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026?: Drake
KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26JUN01-DRA
Cluster 3
Will Morgan Wallen be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026
Cluster 4
Will Noah Kahan be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026
Cluster 5
Will Taylor Swift be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026
Cluster 6
will dtmf be the #1 most streamed song on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 songs usa chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 7
Will BTS be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026
Will BTS be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026?: BTS
KXRANKLISTSONGSPOTUSA-26JUN01-BTS
Cluster 8
Will Michael Jackson be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026
Cluster 9
Will Justin Bieber be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026
Cluster 10
Will Sabrina Carpenter be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026
Cluster 11
Will Bruno Mars be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026
Cluster 12
Will Ariana Grande be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026
Cluster 13
Will The Weeknd be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026
Cluster 14
Will Nicki Minaj be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026
Cluster 15
Will Chris Brown be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026
Cluster 16
Will Dominic Fike be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026
Cluster 17
Will Gracie Abrams be 1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in May 2026
What moved the line
- May 3Ariana Grande↓28pp43→15¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Taylor Swift↑25pp15→40¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Sabrina Carpenter↓19pp42→23¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Olivia Rodrigo↓18pp72→54¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Sabrina Carpenter↓14pp20→6¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.