Will J.J. McCarthy be starting quarterback for Minnesota in Week 1
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
48%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$750
2 contracts
Closes
Sep 15, 2026
52 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Kyler Murray be starting quarterback for Minnesota in Week 1
Cluster 2
Will J.J. McCarthy be starting quarterback for Minnesota in Week 1
Analysis
This market reflects a 32% probability that J.J. McCarthy starts for the Minnesota Vikings in their Week 1 game of the 2026 NFL season. McCarthy, a second-year quarterback, competes with strong alternatives: Kyler Murray is priced at 82% to start, suggesting he is the clear favorite, while Max Brosmer at 5% represents a backup option. The wide gap between McCarthy and Murray reflects uncertainty around Minnesota's quarterback decision heading into the offseason. The probability will be influenced by factors such as McCarthy's performance during training camp and preseason, any injuries sustained by competing quarterbacks, and the Vikings' evaluation of roster needs and cap constraints. The market will likely shift significantly once preseason games begin and coaches make public statements about their starting lineup, with the Week 1 game itself serving as the ultimate resolution event in September 2026.
- ›McCarthy's completion percentage, yards, and touchdown-to-interception ratio during 2025 season compared to historical rookie and second-year QB performance
- ›Kyler Murray's contract status, injury history, and publicly stated comments from Vikings coaching staff about their quarterback plans
- ›Training camp and preseason performance metrics (completion %, efficiency ratings) for McCarthy relative to competing candidates
- ›Any reported trades, free agent signings, or draft acquisitions by Minnesota at the quarterback position between now and August 2026
- ›Injury reports and roster decisions affecting the top three candidates, particularly any changes to Murray's status or availability
What moved the line
- Jul 24Kyler Murray↑4pp84→88¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22J.J. McCarthy↑4pp9→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22Kyler Murray↓3pp87→84¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 18J.J. McCarthy↑3pp9→12¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (48% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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