Will Amendment 1 pass
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 64% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
64%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$678
20 contracts
Closes
Nov 2, 2027
436 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Question” vs “Will Amendment”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Question
Will Question 1 pass?: Prohibit Government Closure of Places of Worship During Emergencies Amendment
KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-WI-Q1
Will Question 3 pass?: Question 3
KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-VA-Q3
Will Question 2 pass?: Question 2
KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-VA-Q2
Will Question 3 pass?: Prohibit Partial Veto to Increase Tax or Fee Amendment
KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-WI-Q3
Will Question 2 pass?: Prohibit Government Discrimination or Preferential Treatment Amendment
KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-WI-Q2
Cluster 2
Will Amendment
Will Amendment 4 pass?: Legislative Salaries Amendment
KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-NM-A4
Will Amendment 2 pass?: Amendment 2
KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-TN-A2
Will Amendment 1 pass?: Amendment 1
KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-TN-A1
Will Amendment 1 pass?: Yes
KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-WV-A1
Cluster 3
Will Initiative
Will Initiative 1 pass?: Yes
KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-WY-I1
Will Initiative No. IP26-645 pass?: Initiative No. IP26-645
KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-WA-IP26645
Will Initiative No. IL26-638 pass?: Initiative No. IL26-638
KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-WA-IL26638
Will Initiative No. IL26-001 pass?: Initiative No. IL26-001
KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-WA-IL26001
Cluster 4
Will Proposition
Cluster 5
Will Proposal
Cluster 6
Will HJR 1018 pass
Will HJR 1018 pass?: Citizens Only Voting Amendment
KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-AR-HJR1018
Cluster 7
Will S.J.R. 2 pass
Will S.J.R. 2 pass?: 60% Vote for Tax-Raising Initiatives
KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-UT-SJR2
Cluster 8
Will H.J.R. 10 pass
Will H.J.R. 10 pass?: Constitutional Amendment Publication
KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-UT-HJR10
Analysis
This represents a 61% probability that Amendment 1, also known as the Acre Limit Amendment, will pass in the upcoming vote. The current probability reflects mixed market sentiment, with the amendment contract trading at 87 cents on Kalshi while showing relatively modest trading volume of $17 in 24 hours. Support levels would likely increase if recent polling shows voters favor limiting acreage restrictions, while opposition could grow if concerns about implementation or economic impacts gain traction. The primary resolution point will be the election date when ballots are counted and official results are certified. Until then, shifts in public opinion, media coverage, and campaign spending may influence the probability as markets incorporate new information about voter preferences on this land-use question.
- ›The amendment contract trades at 87 cents, suggesting 87% implied probability, which diverges from the 61% average across all 20 Kalshi contracts tracked here
- ›Trading volume for Amendment 1 is low at $17 in 24 hours compared to Ballot Measure 3 at $47, indicating limited liquidity and potentially thinner price discovery
- ›Four related ballot measures show varied support levels (76%, 57%, 61%, 29%), suggesting voters may view these land-use and infrastructure questions differently rather than as a unified bloc
- ›The resolution depends on official election results on a specific date, making pre-election polling data and campaign activity key indicators of directional movement
- ›Low volume contracts can show larger price swings from small trades, so recent price moves may reflect individual trades rather than broad market consensus
What moved the line
- Aug 19Yes↓62pp66→4¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Prohibit Government Closure of Places of Worship During Emergencies Amendment↓43pp80→37¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Question 2↓40pp93→53¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Prohibit Partial Veto to Increase Tax or Fee Amendment↓25pp58→33¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Prohibit Government Closure of Places of Worship During Emergencies Amendment↑24pp37→61¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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