Will a bill capping federal student loan interest rates passed the House before Oct 2, 2026
Leader sits at 8% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 3, 2027
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
Before Dec 12, 2026
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
104 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will a bill capping federal student loan interest rates passed the House before
Will a bill capping federal student loan interest rates passed the House before Oct 2, 2026?: Before Oct 2, 2026
KXSTUDENTLOANCAP-26AUG-26OCT02
Will a bill capping federal student loan interest rates passed the House before Jan 3, 2027?: Before Jan 3, 2027
KXSTUDENTLOANCAP-26AUG-27JAN03
Will a bill capping federal student loan interest rates passed the House before Dec 12, 2026?: Before Dec 12, 2026
KXSTUDENTLOANCAP-26AUG-26DEC12
Analysis
This market reflects a 4% chance that the House will pass a bill capping federal student loan interest rates before October 2, 2026—roughly 42 days away. The low probability reflects the compressed timeline and competing legislative priorities in a divided Congress. Student loan policy remains contentious, with Democrats generally favoring rate caps and Republicans opposing them. The probability is depressed by limited recent legislative movement on this issue and the calendar constraints of the current congressional session. Movement would depend on either unexpected bipartisan consensus or a significant shift in legislative priorities. The primary catalyst remains whether leadership schedules a vote; absent that, passage before the deadline becomes increasingly unlikely as the date approaches.
- ›No student loan interest rate cap bill has advanced through committee or received a House floor vote in 2026 to date
- ›Congress has 42 calendar days remaining until October 2, 2026, with competing priorities including budget negotiations and election-year legislation
- ›Democratic control of the Senate and Republican control of the House creates structural misalignment on student loan policy
- ›Historical precedent: no comprehensive student loan reform has passed both chambers since the 2010 Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act
- ›A motion to suspend rules and pass such a bill requires unanimous consent or 2/3 supermajority, a high bar for controversial fiscal legislation
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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