3 source contracts·Kalshi 3·refreshed just now

Will Taiwan People’s Party win the most mayoral and magistrate races in Taiwan’s 2026 local elections

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 3 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

33%

0%50%100%

Kalshi

33%

3 contracts

Polymarket

—

not bound

Cross-venue gap

—

single venue

24h move

—

no pin

24h volume

$402

3 contracts

Top contract

16¢

$256 · Kalshi

Open top contract Read answer

Source contractsPriceVolume

Will Kuomintang win the most mayoral and magistrate races in Taiwan’s 2026 local elections?: Kuomintang78¢$89 Will Democratic Progressive Party win the most mayoral and magistrate races in Taiwan’s 2026 local elections?: Democratic Progressive Party16¢$256 Will Taiwan People’s Party win the most mayoral and magistrate races in Taiwan’s 2026 local elections?: Taiwan People’s Party4¢$57

Bracket families

3 clusters across 3 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Democratic Progressive Party win the most mayoral and magistrate races in Taiwan’s 2026 local elections

1 contract$256

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Democratic Progressive Party win the most mayoral and magistrate races in Taiwan’s 2026 local elections?: Democratic Progressive Party

KXTAIWANLOCAL-26NOV28-DPP

16¢—$256K→

Cluster 2

Will Kuomintang win the most mayoral and magistrate races in Taiwan’s 2026 local elections

1 contract$89

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Kuomintang win the most mayoral and magistrate races in Taiwan’s 2026 local elections?: Kuomintang

KXTAIWANLOCAL-26NOV28-KMT

78¢—$89K→

Cluster 3

Will Taiwan People’s Party win the most mayoral and magistrate races in Taiwan’s 2026 local elections

1 contract$57

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Taiwan People’s Party win the most mayoral and magistrate races in Taiwan’s 2026 local elections?: Taiwan People’s Party

KXTAIWANLOCAL-26NOV28-TPP

4¢—$57K→

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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