Will Christina Blunt be the Republican nominee for CO-02
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 54% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
54%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$15K
9 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
498 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?: Melat Kiros
KXCOPRIMARY-01D26-MKIR
Cluster 2
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?: Diana DeGette
KXCOPRIMARY-01D26-DDEG
Cluster 3
Will Kelley Dennison be the Republican nominee for CO-02
Will Kelley Dennison be the Republican nominee for CO-02?: Kelley Dennison
KXCOPRIMARY-02R26-KDEN
Cluster 4
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?: Dwayne Romero
KXCOPRIMARY-03D26-DROM
Cluster 5
Will Alex Kelloff be the Democratic nominee for CO-03
Will Alex Kelloff be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?: Alex Kelloff
KXCOPRIMARY-03D26-AKEL
Cluster 6
Will Christina Blunt be the Republican nominee for CO-02
Will Christina Blunt be the Republican nominee for CO-02?: Christina Blunt
KXCOPRIMARY-02R26-CBLU
Cluster 7
Will Eileen Laubacher be the Democratic nominee for CO-04
Will Eileen Laubacher be the Democratic nominee for CO-04?: Eileen Laubacher
KXCOPRIMARY-04D26-ELAU
Cluster 8
Will Jenna Preston be the Democratic nominee for CO-04
Will Jenna Preston be the Democratic nominee for CO-04?: Jenna Preston
KXCOPRIMARY-04D26-JPRE
Cluster 9
Will Jessica Killin be the Democratic nominee for CO-05
Will Jessica Killin be the Democratic nominee for CO-05?: Jessica Killin
KXCOPRIMARY-05D26-JKIL
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that Christina Blunt becomes the Republican nominee for Colorado's 2nd Congressional District. At 46%, the market assigns her less than even odds compared to Kelley Dennison, who trades at 71% for the same nomination. The gap between their probabilities suggests that recent polling, endorsements, or fundraising reports favor Dennison. Blunt's nomination probability would increase with stronger primary performance metrics, higher name recognition in the district, or notable endorsements from party leadership. It would decrease if Dennison consolidates support or if Blunt's campaign faces fundraising challenges. The primary election itself will be the critical catalyst resolving this uncertainty. Until that vote occurs, factors like candidate visibility, donor backing, and district polling will continue to shape expectations.
- ›Kelley Dennison is trading 25 percentage points higher than Blunt (71% vs 46%), indicating market participants view her as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination
- ›No contracts for other Republican candidates in CO-02 appear in the current top list, suggesting Blunt and Dennison are the two main contenders
- ›24-hour trading volume for the Blunt contract is zero, indicating minimal recent activity and uncertainty about conviction behind current pricing
- ›The probability requires Blunt to overcome a significant structural disadvantage relative to her main competitor before the primary vote
- ›District demographics, turnout expectations, and any recent campaign developments would materially shift these odds
What moved the line
- Jun 19Diana DeGette↓15pp64→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Melat Kiros↑14pp35→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Melat Kiros↓10pp52→42¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Melat Kiros↓9pp45→36¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Melat Kiros↑7pp42→49¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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