SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (Jul 2, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all answer·3 source contracts·Kalshi 3·closed just now·Closes Nov 3, 2027 · 490d

Who will be the Democratic nominee for Attorney General in Colorado

Leader sits at 5% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

5%

Michael Dougherty

runner-up 5¢leader 5¢

Outcomes

3

winner-take-all

Runner-up

Michael Dougherty

Spread

0pp

contested

24h volume

$2K

modest

Closes

Nov 3, 2027

490 days

Venue

Kalshi

3 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayHetal Doshi: 5% (5 days, 3 points)Hetal Doshi: 5% on 2026-06-30Michael Dougherty: 3% (5 days, 4 points)Michael Dougherty: 3% on 2026-07-01David Seligman: 4% (5 days, 4 points)David Seligman: 4% on 2026-06-30
Hetal Doshi5¢Michael Dougherty3¢David Seligman4¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 5d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

Prediction markets currently assign Jena Griswold a 78% probability of becoming the Democratic nominee for Attorney General in Colorado. Griswold's strong position reflects her incumbent advantage as the current Attorney General, name recognition, and fundraising capacity. The remaining 22% of probability is distributed among three challengers: David Seligman and Michael Dougherty are each at 7%, while Hetal Doshi trails at 4%. The Democratic primary race will be settled on the nomination date, likely at the state convention or through a primary vote. Key uncertainties include whether Griswold faces stronger-than-expected primary opposition, whether any challenger successfully mobilizes specific voter blocs, and whether late-stage campaign developments or endorsements shift momentum. The outcome depends on actual voter participation and preference rather than pre-election polling alone.

  • Griswold is the sitting Attorney General with significant name recognition and institutional advantages
  • Colorado's Democratic primary schedule and nomination rules determine when this contest is decided
  • Fundraising disparities between Griswold and challengers reflect resource advantages visible in campaign finance filings
  • No single challenger has consolidated opposition to Griswold, with the anti-incumbent vote split among multiple candidates
  • Late endorsements from party leadership or major organizations could materially shift candidate viability before the nomination date

Recently closed in election 2026

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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