Will Chicago WS vs Los Angeles D be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
5%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−1pp
12h ago
24h volume
$644
7 contracts
Closes
Nov 1, 2026
181 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Will New York Y vs” vs “Will Detroit vs”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will New York Y vs
Will New York Y vs Los Angeles D be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: New York Y vs Los Angeles D
KXTEAMSINWS-26-NYYLAD
Will New York Y vs Atlanta be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: New York Y vs Atlanta
KXTEAMSINWS-26-NYYATL
Will New York Y vs Chicago C be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: New York Y vs Chicago C
KXTEAMSINWS-26-NYYCHC
Cluster 2
Will Detroit vs
Will Detroit vs Los Angeles D be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Detroit vs Los Angeles D
KXTEAMSINWS-26-DETLAD
Will Detroit vs San Francisco be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Detroit vs San Francisco
KXTEAMSINWS-26-DETSF
Cluster 3
Will Seattle vs Los Angeles D be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series
Cluster 4
Will Chicago WS vs Los Angeles D be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series
Analysis
This market estimates a 6% chance that the Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers will face each other in the 2026 World Series. The probability reflects that both teams would need to win their respective league championship series to meet in the finals. The Dodgers are currently favored to win the National League pennant at 29 cents, suggesting stronger playoff positioning, while the White Sox would need to overcome American League competition. The matchup probability depends on both teams' remaining regular season performance, playoff seeding, and injury status through October. Key developments include trade deadline acquisitions, winning streaks or slumps, and head-to-head records against other playoff contenders. The 2026 World Series in early November will ultimately resolve this market.
- ›Los Angeles Dodgers currently trading at 29 cents to win the 2026 World Series, indicating higher baseline win probability than Chicago
- ›Chicago White Sox playoff viability depends on American League competition intensity and whether they can secure a playoff spot
- ›Regular season standings and playoff seeding as of late September 2026 will determine each team's path to the championship series
- ›Injuries to key roster players on either team between now and October could significantly shift win probabilities
- ›Head-to-head performance and playoff history between these franchises shows mixed outcomes that don't strongly favor this specific matchup
What moved the line
- Apr 29Detroit vs Los Angeles D↓10pp12→2¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.