Will Chicago WS vs Los Angeles D be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
6%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$8K
7 contracts
Closes
Nov 1, 2026
67 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Will Tampa Bay vs” vs “Will New York Y vs”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Tampa Bay vs
Will Tampa Bay vs Milwaukee be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Tampa Bay vs Milwaukee
KXTEAMSINWS-26-TBMIL
Will Tampa Bay vs Los Angeles D be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Tampa Bay vs Los Angeles D
KXTEAMSINWS-26-TBLAD
Cluster 2
Will New York Y vs
Will New York Y vs Los Angeles D be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: New York Y vs Los Angeles D
KXTEAMSINWS-26-NYYLAD
Will New York Y vs Milwaukee be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: New York Y vs Milwaukee
KXTEAMSINWS-26-NYYMIL
Cluster 3
Will Boston vs
Will Boston vs Los Angeles D be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Boston vs Los Angeles D
KXTEAMSINWS-26-BOSLAD
Will Boston vs Milwaukee be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series?: Boston vs Milwaukee
KXTEAMSINWS-26-BOSMIL
Cluster 4
Will Chicago WS vs Los Angeles D be the matchup in the Pro Baseball Championship Series
Analysis
This contract represents the probability that the Chicago White Sox will face the Los Angeles Dodgers in baseball's championship series. At 6%, the market assigns this outcome low likelihood compared to alternatives like New York vs Los Angeles (9%) or Toronto vs San Diego (6%). The probability reflects both teams' current competitive standing and playoff trajectory. The White Sox's performance through the regular season and their position in the American League playoff race are primary drivers—improvements in their record or postseason seeding would increase this probability. Conversely, strong performances by other AL contenders reduce Chicago's chances. The resolution of this contract depends entirely on which teams actually advance from their respective league playoffs to the championship series, which concludes in early November 2026. Market pricing suggests other matchups currently appear more likely to occur.
- ›Chicago White Sox's current win-loss record and playoff seeding position in the American League relative to other contenders
- ›Los Angeles Dodgers' performance and playoff positioning in the National League, particularly against other NL rivals
- ›Historical playoff advancement rates and recent head-to-head records between these teams if they have met in previous postseason play
- ›Injury status of key players on both rosters that could materially affect playoff probability
- ›Comparative volume and pricing of related championship series contracts, showing market expectations for alternative matchups
What moved the line
- Aug 18Tampa Bay vs Los Angeles D↑4pp6→10¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will The Warehouse Project at Depot Mayfield be in the Top 5 on Dj Mag Top 100 Clubslast 50% · 3d
- How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Aug 2026last 38% · 4d
- Will Trump nominate Stephen Hahn as FDA commissionerlast 49% · 5d
- Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7 before Aug 21, 2026last 45% · 5d
- Will James Fishback concede defeat in the the 2026 Florida gubernatorial race before Aug 20, 2026last 79% · 6d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.