Will Temu Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 114

30-day trend

Analysis

This market asks whether Temu's US monthly credit card spending will exceed $114 million in August 2026. The current 49% probability indicates substantial uncertainty about whether spending will reach this threshold. The outcome depends primarily on user acquisition and retention trends, as well as seasonal consumer spending patterns in August. Credit card transaction data typically becomes available with a lag of 1-2 months, meaning the August result would likely be confirmed by early October 2026. The contract pricing suggests meaningful probability mass around the $100-106 million range, with declining odds for higher thresholds, indicating market skepticism about sustained acceleration beyond typical summer levels.

• ›Temu's monthly active user growth rate in Q3 2026 and user engagement trends relative to competitive pressure from other platforms
• ›Average transaction value per user and frequency of repeat purchases during the August period
• ›Seasonal spending patterns in e-commerce and consumer discretionary categories during summer months
• ›Availability of competing platforms and promotional activity from rivals that could shift spending shares
• ›Historical volatility in monthly credit card spend figures and whether August 2026 shows typical seasonal variation or structural changes

What moved the line

• Aug 5Above 118↑32pp10→42¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 5Above 114↑32pp25→57¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 5Above 112↑28pp31→59¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 6Above 98↑27pp67→94¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 5Above 122↑27pp6→33¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds