How much will Tesla's energy business grow before 2027
Leader sits at 57% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 15 GWh of energy deployed in a single quarter
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
Above 20 GWh of energy deplo
Spread
33pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Apr 1, 2027
278 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How much will Tesla's energy business grow before 2027
How much will Tesla's energy business grow before 2027?: Above 15 GWh of energy deployed in a single quarter
KXTESLAENERGYBY-27-15
How much will Tesla's energy business grow before 2027?: Above 30 GWh of energy deployed in a single quarter
KXTESLAENERGYBY-27-30
How much will Tesla's energy business grow before 2027?: Above 20 GWh of energy deployed in a single quarter
KXTESLAENERGYBY-27-20
Analysis
This market reflects traders' assessment that Tesla's energy business will achieve substantial growth between now and end-2026—specifically, the leading contract prices in growth at 61% probability. Tesla's energy segment, which includes Powerwall, Megapack, and solar installations, has shown accelerating revenue but remains much smaller than automotive. The probability level suggests meaningful confidence in continued expansion, though not overwhelming certainty. Key drivers include execution on manufacturing capacity, competitive dynamics in home and grid storage, macroeconomic demand for renewable energy storage, and Tesla's ability to sustain current deployment rates. Upcoming quarterly earnings reports through end-2026 will provide concrete data on revenue growth, backlog levels, and production scaling. Market pricing reflects genuine uncertainty about whether the segment can maintain or exceed recent growth trajectories amid supply chain constraints and rising competition from established energy companies and newer battery startups.
- ›Tesla energy revenue growth rates in Q1-Q4 2026 relative to 2025 baseline and historical quarterly trends
- ›Production capacity utilization for Powerwall and Megapack manufacturing, particularly new factory output contributions
- ›Quarterly backlog figures and lead times, indicating demand sustainability versus market saturation signals
- ›Macroeconomic factors affecting commercial and residential battery storage demand, including utility rate trends and grid stability investments
- ›Competitive market share retention as legacy energy companies and new entrants scale storage offerings
What moved the line
- Jun 25Above 20 GWh of energy deployed in a single quarter↓4pp27→23¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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