Will Target Corporation report Above 1% comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026
Leader sits at 90% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 89%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 0.5%
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
89¢
Above 1%
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$506
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
298 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Target Corporation report Above
Will Target Corporation report Above 4% comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 4%
KXTGTA-27MARCOMP-4.0
Will Target Corporation report Above 3.5% comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 3.5%
KXTGTA-27MARCOMP-3.5
Will Target Corporation report Above 5% comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 5%
KXTGTA-27MARCOMP-5.0
Will Target Corporation report Above 4.5% comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 4.5%
KXTGTA-27MARCOMP-4.5
Will Target Corporation report Above 3% comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 3%
KXTGTA-27MARCOMP-3.0
Will Target Corporation report Above 2.5% comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 2.5%
KXTGTA-27MARCOMP-2.5
Will Target Corporation report Above 2% comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 2%
KXTGTA-27MARCOMP-2.0
Will Target Corporation report Above 1.5% comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 1.5%
KXTGTA-27MARCOMP-1.5
Will Target Corporation report Above 1% comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 1%
KXTGTA-27MARCOMP-1.0
Will Target Corporation report Above 0.5% comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 0.5%
KXTGTA-27MARCOMP-0.5
Analysis
The market is pricing a 88% probability that Target will achieve above 1% comparable sales growth in fiscal 2026. This reflects expectations for modest positive sales momentum in a competitive retail environment. The main drivers of this probability are Target's cost management initiatives and consumer discretionary spending patterns; downward pressure would come from prolonged economic weakness or inventory challenges. The key resolution point is Target's fiscal 2026 earnings report, scheduled for early 2027, when the company reports official comparable sales figures. Until then, quarterly same-store sales trends, consumer spending data, and retail sector performance will provide incremental signals about the likelihood this threshold is met.
- ›Target's Q1-Q3 fiscal 2026 comparable sales results and trend direction will directly indicate whether 1% annual growth remains achievable
- ›Consumer discretionary spending and wage growth data throughout 2026 affect foot traffic and transaction values at Target stores
- ›Quarterly earnings reports and management guidance updates provide interim signals before the final fiscal 2026 resolution in early 2027
- ›Competitive pressures from e-commerce and other retailers influence Target's market share and pricing power in discretionary categories
- ›Inventory management and promotional intensity affect both sales growth rates and profit margins during the measurement period
What moved the line
- Aug 5Above 0.5%↑31pp59→90¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Above 4%↑27pp13→40¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Above 1%↑27pp62→89¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Above 1.5%↑27pp59→86¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Above 2%↑27pp56→83¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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