Top Spotify artist in April
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 36% across 10 contracts. Kalshi at 37%, Polymarket at 33% — a 4pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
37%
7 contracts
Polymarket
33%
3 contracts
Cross-venue gap
4pp
modest gap
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
10 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 37¢ · Polymarket 33¢ · 4pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (33¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (37¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Will Drake be the #” vs “Top Spotify Artist 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Drake be the #
Will Drake be the #1 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Drake
KXTOPARTISTUSA-26-DRA
Will Drake be the #3 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Drake
KXTOPARTISTTHIRD-26-DRA
Will Drake be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Drake
KXTOPARTISTRUNNERUP-26-DRA
Cluster 2
Top Spotify Artist 2026
Cluster 3
Who will be the top Spotify artist this year
Cluster 4
will taylor swift be the #1 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 5
will bad bunny be the #1 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
What moved the line
- May 2Taylor Swift↑6pp8→14¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Taylor Swift↑6pp14→20¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Taylor Swift↓6pp20→14¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Bad Bunny↓4pp18→14¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Drake↑4pp12→16¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.