Top Spotify artist in April
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 38% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
38%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
7 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
144 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Will Drake be the #” vs “Who will be the top Spotify artist this year”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Drake be the #
Will Drake be the #1 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Drake
KXTOPARTISTUSA-26-DRA
Will Drake be the #3 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Drake
KXTOPARTISTTHIRD-26-DRA
Will Drake be the #2 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?: Drake
KXTOPARTISTRUNNERUP-26-DRA
Cluster 2
Who will be the top Spotify artist this year
Cluster 3
will bad bunny be the #1 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 4
will taylor swift be the #1 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Analysis
This probability estimates a 36% chance that Drake will be the top-streamed artist on Spotify's 2026 year-end rankings for the U.S. market. The forecast reflects Drake's historical dominance in streaming metrics, though it also acknowledges significant competition from artists like Bad Bunny and Taylor Swift. The current level is driven by Drake's consistent streaming volume and prior Wrapped performances, balanced against uncertainty about 2026 release schedules, touring patterns, and competitive releases from other major artists. The primary resolution event will occur when Spotify publishes its official 2026 Wrapped rankings, typically in late November or early December. Between now and then, major album releases, streaming trends throughout the year, and shifts in listener preferences will reshape the underlying odds.
- ›Drake's 2025 Spotify streaming performance and any major releases or touring activity planned for 2026
- ›Competitive releases and streaming performance from Bad Bunny, Taylor Swift, and other high-volume artists during 2026
- ›Historical patterns in Spotify Wrapped rankings—whether prior top artists maintain position or whether leadership rotates annually
- ›The timing and commercial performance of any surprise releases or cultural moments that drive streaming concentration in the second half of 2026
- ›Kalshi and Polymarket showing a 6-percentage-point gap, with significantly higher trading volume on the Kalshi contract, potentially indicating divergent trader assessments of available information
What moved the line
- Aug 5Drake↑4pp78→82¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Drake↓3pp15→12¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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