Will at least 14 dates from Ed Sheeran 's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled
Leader sits at 34% across 17 bound outcomes, runner-up at 23%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 1 date cancelled
Outcomes
17
winner-take-all
Runner-up
23¢
At least 3 dates cancelled
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$23K
liquid
Closes
Dec 12, 2026
80 days
Venue
Kalshi
17 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will at least
Will at least 15 dates from Ed Sheeran 's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled?: At least 15 dates cancelled
KXTOURCANCEL-LOOP-12DEC26-T15
Will at least 14 dates from Ed Sheeran 's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled?: At least 14 dates cancelled
KXTOURCANCEL-LOOP-12DEC26-T14
Will at least 11 dates from Ed Sheeran 's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled?: At least 11 dates cancelled
KXTOURCANCEL-LOOP-12DEC26-T11
Will at least 10 dates from Ed Sheeran 's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled?: At least 10 dates cancelled
KXTOURCANCEL-LOOP-12DEC26-T10
Will at least 7 dates from Ed Sheeran 's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled?: At least 7 dates cancelled
KXTOURCANCEL-LOOP-12DEC26-T7
Will at least 4 dates from Ed Sheeran 's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled?: At least 4 dates cancelled
KXTOURCANCEL-LOOP-12DEC26-T4
Will at least 17 dates from Ed Sheeran 's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled?: At least 17 dates cancelled
KXTOURCANCEL-LOOP-12DEC26-T17
Will at least 8 dates from Ed Sheeran 's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled?: At least 8 dates cancelled
KXTOURCANCEL-LOOP-12DEC26-T8
Will at least 9 dates from Ed Sheeran 's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled?: At least 9 dates cancelled
KXTOURCANCEL-LOOP-12DEC26-T9
Will at least 1 date from Ed Sheeran 's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled?: At least 1 date cancelled
KXTOURCANCEL-LOOP-12DEC26-T1
Will at least 2 dates from Ed Sheeran 's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled?: At least 2 dates cancelled
KXTOURCANCEL-LOOP-12DEC26-T2
Will at least 3 dates from Ed Sheeran 's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled?: At least 3 dates cancelled
KXTOURCANCEL-LOOP-12DEC26-T3
Will at least 16 dates from Ed Sheeran 's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled?: At least 16 dates cancelled
KXTOURCANCEL-LOOP-12DEC26-T16
Will at least 6 dates from Ed Sheeran 's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled?: At least 6 dates cancelled
KXTOURCANCEL-LOOP-12DEC26-T6
Will at least 5 dates from Ed Sheeran 's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled?: At least 5 dates cancelled
KXTOURCANCEL-LOOP-12DEC26-T5
Will at least 13 dates from Ed Sheeran 's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled?: At least 13 dates cancelled
KXTOURCANCEL-LOOP-12DEC26-T13
Will at least 12 dates from Ed Sheeran 's Loop Tour 2026 be cancelled?: At least 12 dates cancelled
KXTOURCANCEL-LOOP-12DEC26-T12
Analysis
This contract measures the likelihood that Ed Sheeran will cancel at least 14 dates from his 2026 Loop Tour. The 7% market price reflects a low but non-negligible probability of mass cancellations. Most markets price a 37-39% chance of at least 1-2 cancellations, suggesting traders view some delays or venue changes as plausible but wholesale tour disruption as unlikely. The outlook depends on tour momentum through late 2026, artist health, production logistics, and demand sustainability. As dates approach and execute through year-end, actual cancellation patterns will clarify whether isolated postponements or systemic problems emerge. Resolution hinges on official cancellation announcements by tour operators and venues.
- ›Tour schedule execution rate to date and any announced postponements or venue changes through September 2026
- ›Ed Sheeran's health status and availability, including any public statements or documented medical issues affecting tour viability
- ›Venue and logistical capacity constraints—whether production infrastructure can sustain the full tour calendar across scheduled locations
- ›Ticket sales velocity and demand trends across tour legs, which may indicate whether underperforming dates face economic pressure to cancel
- ›Historical cancellation patterns for major 2026 tours and comparable artists, establishing baseline expectations for mass postponement scenarios
What moved the line
- Sep 19At least 5 dates cancelled↓17pp31→14¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19At least 12 dates cancelled↓14pp23→9¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19At least 11 dates cancelled↓13pp23→10¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19At least 7 dates cancelled↓12pp26→14¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19At least 2 dates cancelled↓10pp39→29¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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