Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce its completed purchase of Ethereum for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 21, 2029
Leader sits at 16% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Bitcoin
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
Ethereum
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce its completed purchase
Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce its completed purchase of Bitcoin for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 21, 2029?: Bitcoin
KXTREASBUYCRYPTO-26AUG-BITCOIN
Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce its completed purchase of XRP for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 21, 2029?: XRP
KXTREASBUYCRYPTO-26AUG-XRP
Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce its completed purchase of Solana for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 21, 2029?: Solana
KXTREASBUYCRYPTO-26AUG-SOLANA
Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce its completed purchase of Hyperliquid (HYPE) for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 21, 2029?: Hyperliquid
KXTREASBUYCRYPTO-26AUG-HYPERLIQUID
Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce its completed purchase of Ethereum for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 21, 2029?: Ethereum
KXTREASBUYCRYPTO-26AUG-ETHEREUM
Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce its completed purchase of Dogecoin for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 21, 2029?: Dogecoin
KXTREASBUYCRYPTO-26AUG-DOGECOIN
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that the U.S. Treasury will publicly announce a completed acquisition of Ethereum as an official government reserve asset by January 21, 2029. At 11%, it reflects skepticism about such a move, though Bitcoin's slightly higher 11% probability suggests some traders see crypto reserves as more plausible than the specific cryptocurrency chosen. The current low probability reflects the lack of formal government policy supporting crypto reserves, the regulatory uncertainty around digital assets, and the Treasury's historical focus on traditional reserves like gold and foreign currency. Key drivers would be legislative action mandating crypto purchases, significant geopolitical shifts favoring decentralized assets, or a major shift in administration policy. The primary catalyst would be announcements from Congress or Treasury leadership explicitly endorsing cryptocurrency as a reserve asset, though no scheduled legislative action addresses this currently. Market liquidity remains minimal across all contracts, suggesting limited trader engagement with these scenarios.
- ›No current U.S. legislation or official Treasury policy supports purchasing cryptocurrency as a government reserve, creating a high bar for policy change by 2029
- ›Bitcoin's 11% probability versus Ethereum's 7% suggests market skepticism that any single cryptocurrency asset class would be selected over others
- ›Regulatory clarity around stablecoins and decentralized finance would likely precede any government reserve purchase decision
- ›A change in administration, Congressional majority, or major geopolitical event (like reserve currency crisis) could shift probability upward significantly
- ›The Treasury has not publicly discussed crypto reserves as a policy option, making forward guidance from Treasury leadership the most direct catalyst
Recently closed in bitcoin
- Will Bitcoin hit $200,000?last 30% · 0d
- Will Bitcoin hit $100,000?$76,500 or abovelast 50% · 0d
- Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin?last 9% · 0d
- Will Bitcoin be above $75,000 by Sep 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ETlast 93% · 2d
- Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce a nationwide policy permitting members of the general public in mainland China to legally buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange, bank, broker, or other regulated trading platform before Jan 1, 2029last 17% · 40d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in bitcoin.
In bitcoin
Related reading
Bitcoin Long-Term Bulls Are in Control, Targeting $70k+
The Bitcoin prediction market is overwhelmingly bullish for the medium term, with the `KXBTCMAXMON` series showing an 82% probability of BTC being above $70,000 by August 2026. This optimism is fueled by the 7% surge in the spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) and a 10% surge in the Ethereum ETF (ETHE). The market is pricing in a strong continuation of the crypto rally, with significant volume concentrating on the $70k to $80k range.
Bitcoin Market Sees 54% Chance of $50k Before $100k
Bitcoin prediction markets show low probability of reaching $200k by 2027, but a near-term tug-of-war between $50k and $100k. Ethereum sentiment is more positive.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.