Will Donald Trump attend UFC 332
Leader sits at 5% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Yes
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
Yes
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$14K
liquid
Closes
Oct 25, 2026
77 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump attend UFC 33
Will Donald Trump attend UFC 330?: Yes
KXTRUMPUFC-26AUG-DJT
Will Donald Trump attend UFC 333?: Yes
KXTRUMPUFC-26OCT2-DJT
Will Donald Trump attend UFC 331?: Yes
KXTRUMPUFC-26SEP-DJT
Will Donald Trump attend UFC 332?: Yes
KXTRUMPUFC-26OCT-DJT
Analysis
This 12% probability reflects market expectations that Donald Trump will attend UFC 332, based on trading activity across four related contracts. The relatively low probability suggests skepticism about attendance, though the comparable 12% price for UFC 331 indicates uncertainty extends across multiple upcoming events rather than specific factors tied to UFC 332 itself. The main drivers are Trump's historical attendance patterns at major sporting events, his current political schedule and commitments, and the timing of UFC 332's event date. The event's actual occurrence will provide definitive resolution, making the scheduled date the key catalyst that triggers settlement. Broader context includes Trump's variable public appearances and his demonstrated interest in high-profile entertainment venues, balanced against unpredictable scheduling demands.
- ›UFC 332's scheduled event date and whether it falls during a period when Trump's political or personal schedule permits attendance
- ›Historical frequency of Trump attending UFC events in prior years compared to other major sporting events
- ›Trading volume remains extremely low for UFC 332 ($8 in 24h volume), suggesting limited market confidence or interest in this specific outcome
- ›The price for UFC 331 attendance equals UFC 332's probability (12%), indicating traders may view these as similarly unlikely rather than basing assessments on distinct event-specific factors
- ›Distance between today (August 2026) and UFC 332's event date affects the reliability of current probability as a predictor, with earlier events (UFC 330 at 9%) commanding higher perceived likelihood
What moved the line
- Aug 7Yes↓5pp10→5¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Yes↓4pp10→6¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Yes↓3pp7→4¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Yes↓3pp12→9¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Yes↓3pp9→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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