Will Donald Trump attend UFC 332
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
4%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
1 contracts
Closes
Oct 25, 2026
44 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump attend UFC 332
Will Donald Trump attend UFC 332?: Yes
KXTRUMPUFC-26OCT-DJT
Analysis
This 12% probability reflects market expectations that Donald Trump will attend UFC 332, based on trading activity across four related contracts. The relatively low probability suggests skepticism about attendance, though the comparable 12% price for UFC 331 indicates uncertainty extends across multiple upcoming events rather than specific factors tied to UFC 332 itself. The main drivers are Trump's historical attendance patterns at major sporting events, his current political schedule and commitments, and the timing of UFC 332's event date. The event's actual occurrence will provide definitive resolution, making the scheduled date the key catalyst that triggers settlement. Broader context includes Trump's variable public appearances and his demonstrated interest in high-profile entertainment venues, balanced against unpredictable scheduling demands.
- ›UFC 332's scheduled event date and whether it falls during a period when Trump's political or personal schedule permits attendance
- ›Historical frequency of Trump attending UFC events in prior years compared to other major sporting events
- ›Trading volume remains extremely low for UFC 332 ($8 in 24h volume), suggesting limited market confidence or interest in this specific outcome
- ›The price for UFC 331 attendance equals UFC 332's probability (12%), indicating traders may view these as similarly unlikely rather than basing assessments on distinct event-specific factors
- ›Distance between today (August 2026) and UFC 332's event date affects the reliability of current probability as a predictor, with earlier events (UFC 330 at 9%) commanding higher perceived likelihood
Recently closed in trump
- Will Trump say "Hungary / Hungarian" before Oct 1, 2026last 91% · 13d
- Will Trump say "Marjorie Traitor Greene" before Jul 1, 2026last 40% · 13d
- Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Kevin Warsh in Sep 2026last 90% · 13d
- Who will Trump talk to in Aprillast 3% · 22d
- How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Aug 2026last 38% · 33d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In trump
Related reading
Trump Markets: Impeachment Odds at 65¢, Administration Turnover in Focus
Trump continues to be a major market driver with bets on his removal, apologies, and cabinet departures. The impeachment market (65¢) suggests traders see a real possibility of proceedings. The administration's turnover is also a focus.
Trump administration and Press Secretary speculation dominate political markets
The market for the next White House Press Secretary is the single highest-volume market in the entire dataset, with Maria Bartiromo leading at 14¢. Other Trump-focused markets on resignation and impeachment are also active, signaling intense trader interest in the political landscape.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.