Will the number of Trump rallies be above 30 from January 1 to November 3, 2026
Leader sits at 90% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 84%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 20
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
84¢
Above 25
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
44 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the number of Trump rallies be above
Will the number of Trump rallies be above 20 from January 1 to November 3, 2026?: Above 20
KXTRUMPRALLIES-26NOV03-A20
Will the number of Trump rallies be above 55 from January 1 to November 3, 2026?: Above 55
KXTRUMPRALLIES-26NOV03-A55
Will the number of Trump rallies be above 40 from January 1 to November 3, 2026?: Above 40
KXTRUMPRALLIES-26NOV03-A40
Will the number of Trump rallies be above 35 from January 1 to November 3, 2026?: Above 35
KXTRUMPRALLIES-26NOV03-A35
Will the number of Trump rallies be above 30 from January 1 to November 3, 2026?: Above 30
KXTRUMPRALLIES-26NOV03-A30
Will the number of Trump rallies be above 25 from January 1 to November 3, 2026?: Above 25
KXTRUMPRALLIES-26NOV03-A25
Analysis
This contracts series tracks whether Trump will hold more than 15, 20, 25, 35, or 40 campaign rallies between January and November 2026. The 80% probability on "above 15" reflects market expectation that he will exceed the lowest threshold, while the 55% price on "above 25" suggests substantial uncertainty about higher rally frequencies. The current pricing indicates traders expect Trump to hold somewhere in the 15-30 rally range during this period. Campaign intensity typically correlates with election proximity; with November 2026 being a midterm cycle, rally frequency depends partly on Trump's formal campaign involvement and the GOP's resource allocation. The main factors shifting probabilities would be whether Trump becomes an official 2028 candidate (increasing rally activity) or faces competing demands. Resolution depends on documented rally attendance counts from recognized Trump campaign events.
- ›Trump's official 2028 candidacy status — if formally announced, expected to significantly increase rally frequency
- ›Historical rally pace in 2022-2024 midterm/primary cycles — establishes baseline for comparable campaign intensity
- ›Competing time demands such as legal proceedings or other business commitments affecting availability
- ›Definition of qualifying rallies — whether only official campaign events count or broader political appearances are included
- ›Geographic distribution patterns — whether he concentrates rallies in specific swing states or spreads activity nationally
What moved the line
- Sep 18Above 25↑41pp47→88¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Above 30↑41pp41→82¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 25↓39pp86→47¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 30↓39pp80→41¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Above 30↓34pp82→48¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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