Will Michael Olise lead Champions League in assists for the 2026-27 season

30-day trend

Analysis

This market estimates a 15% chance that Michael Olise will record the most assists in the UEFA Champions League during the 2026-27 season. The relatively modest probability reflects the competitive field—assist leaders typically emerge from top clubs with consistent playing time and attacking opportunities, categories in which Olise competes alongside numerous established playmakers. The primary factors influencing this probability are Olise's club assignment and role within that team's system, particularly whether he plays in a creative midfield or wing position that accumulates assists. The season's outcome will resolve only after all group stage and knockout matches conclude in June 2027, though trajectory will become clearer after the winter transfer window and mid-season performance data emerge. Current contract values and trading volume suggest moderate market interest, with limited liquidity indicating uncertainty among participants about baseline expectations for the 2026-27 season.

• ›Olise's employer and assigned position at the start of the 2026-27 season—assist totals correlate strongly with team quality and tactical role
• ›Playing time consistency—a 15% probability implies Olise must be a regular starter for a top-six European club to accumulate competitive assist numbers
• ›Comparison pool size—Olise competes against Mbappe (13¢), Raphinha (10¢), and dozens of other established playmakers from elite teams across all participating leagues
• ›Historical assist distribution—Champions League assists typically concentrate among 5-10 players per season, reducing baseline probability for any individual outside the consensus elite tier
• ›Injury risk and squad competition—any significant absence or loss of starting status during the 38-match campaign would materially reduce assist accumulation

What moved the line

• Sep 10Raphinha↑4pp5→9¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

• Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 66% · 4d
• Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 64% · 4d
• Will average **gas prices** be above $3.25last 84% · 6d
• Will PL win the 2026 Brazilian Chamber of Deputies electionslast 48% · 6d
• Will PSD hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial electionslast 23% · 6d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds