Will Get-in price of the 2026 World Cup Final on TicketData be above $9000 on 3:00PM ET July 18th, 2026
Leader sits at 97% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 97%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $5000
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
97¢
Above $4500
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jul 18, 2026
23 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Get-in price of
Will Get-in price of the 2026 World Cup Final on TicketData be above $5000 on 3:00PM ET July 18th, 2026?: Above $5000
KXWCPRICE-26JULWCFINAL-5000
Will Get-in price of the 2026 World Cup Final on TicketData be above $7500 on 3:00PM ET July 18th, 2026?: Above $7500
KXWCPRICE-26JULWCFINAL-7500
Will Get-in price of the 2026 World Cup Final on TicketData be above $10500 on 3:00PM ET July 18th, 2026?: Above $10500
KXWCPRICE-26JULWCFINAL-10500
Will Get-in price of the 2026 World Cup Final on TicketData be above $12000 on 3:00PM ET July 18th, 2026?: Above $12000
KXWCPRICE-26JULWCFINAL-12000
Will Get-in price of the 2026 World Cup Final on TicketData be above $7000 on 3:00PM ET July 18th, 2026?: Above $7000
KXWCPRICE-26JULWCFINAL-7000
Will Get-in price of the 2026 World Cup Final on TicketData be above $9000 on 3:00PM ET July 18th, 2026?: Above $9000
KXWCPRICE-26JULWCFINAL-9000
Will Get-in price of the Semi-Final - World Cup Match 101 (AT&T Stadium) on TicketData be above $3000 on 3:00PM ET July 13th, 2026?: Above $3000
KXWCPRICE-26JULWCSEMI1-3000
Will Get-in price of the 2026 World Cup Final on TicketData be above $11500 on 3:00PM ET July 18th, 2026?: Above $11500
KXWCPRICE-26JULWCFINAL-11500
Will Get-in price of the Semi-Final - World Cup Match 101 (AT&T Stadium) on TicketData be above $2500 on 3:00PM ET July 13th, 2026?: Above $2500
KXWCPRICE-26JULWCSEMI1-2500
Will Get-in price of the Semi-Final - World Cup Match 102 (Mercedes-Benz Stadium) on TicketData be above $2750 on 3:00PM ET July 15th, 2026?: Above $2750
KXWCPRICE-26JULWCSEMI2-2750
Will Get-in price of the Semi-Final - World Cup Match 101 (AT&T Stadium) on TicketData be above $2250 on 3:00PM ET July 13th, 2026?: Above $2250
KXWCPRICE-26JULWCSEMI1-2250
Will Get-in price of the Semi-Final - World Cup Match 101 (AT&T Stadium) on TicketData be above $3250 on 3:00PM ET July 13th, 2026?: Above $3250
KXWCPRICE-26JULWCSEMI1-3250
Will Get-in price of the Semi-Final - World Cup Match 101 (AT&T Stadium) on TicketData be above $2750 on 3:00PM ET July 13th, 2026?: Above $2750
KXWCPRICE-26JULWCSEMI1-2750
Will Get-in price of the Semi-Final - World Cup Match 102 (Mercedes-Benz Stadium) on TicketData be above $2500 on 3:00PM ET July 15th, 2026?: Above $2500
KXWCPRICE-26JULWCSEMI2-2500
Will Get-in price of the 2026 World Cup Final on TicketData be above $8500 on 3:00PM ET July 18th, 2026?: Above $8500
KXWCPRICE-26JULWCFINAL-8500
Will Get-in price of the 2026 World Cup Final on TicketData be above $10000 on 3:00PM ET July 18th, 2026?: Above $10000
KXWCPRICE-26JULWCFINAL-10000
Will Get-in price of the Semi-Final - World Cup Match 101 (AT&T Stadium) on TicketData be above $3750 on 3:00PM ET July 13th, 2026?: Above $3750
KXWCPRICE-26JULWCSEMI1-3750
Will Get-in price of the Semi-Final - World Cup Match 101 (AT&T Stadium) on TicketData be above $1750 on 3:00PM ET July 13th, 2026?: Above $1750
KXWCPRICE-26JULWCSEMI1-1750
Will Get-in price of the Semi-Final - World Cup Match 102 (Mercedes-Benz Stadium) on TicketData be above $2000 on 3:00PM ET July 15th, 2026?: Above $2000
KXWCPRICE-26JULWCSEMI2-2000
Will Get-in price of the 2026 World Cup Final on TicketData be above $4500 on 3:00PM ET July 18th, 2026?: Above $4500
KXWCPRICE-26JULWCFINAL-4500
Analysis
This market assesses whether World Cup Final tickets will trade at a get-in price above $9,000 on TicketData at 3:00 PM ET on July 18th, 2026. The 29-cent contract price reflects skepticism that prices will reach this level, suggesting market participants expect either moderately lower secondary-market prices or sufficient ticket supply to prevent extreme scarcity premiums. Final ticket prices depend on team identity, demand from the two finalist nations, stadium capacity constraints, and overall secondary-market dynamics closer to the event. The main driver is which teams qualify; matches involving traditional powerhouses with large diaspora populations typically command higher resale premiums. Resolution occurs on July 18th when actual TicketData get-in prices can be verified, making this a pure data-dependent event with limited predictability until the semi-finals conclude on July 13-15.
- ›Get-in price (cheapest available ticket) on TicketData will be observed and verified at exactly 3:00 PM ET on July 18th, 2026—no discretion in measurement
- ›Finalist team identities, confirmed by semi-final results on July 13-15, will substantially influence secondary-market demand and pricing power
- ›Stadium capacity and ticket supply allocation (number of seats released to secondary markets) constrains the price floor independent of demand
- ›Historical World Cup final secondary-market data shows get-in prices ranging widely based on host nation, team proximity, and perceived demand
- ›Current market prices on related contracts (get-in above $6,000 at 40 cents) suggest participants expect prices in the $5,000-$8,000 range more likely than above $9,000
What moved the line
- Jun 19Above $7500↓49pp69→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Above $2750↑43pp40→83¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Above $2000↑37pp56→93¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Above $7500↑34pp35→69¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Above $9000↓34pp58→24¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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