Will the United States acquire any territory not under its sovereignty (as of Issuance) before Jan 21, 2029
Leader sits at 20% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 12%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 21, 2029
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
12¢
Before Jan 2028
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jan 21, 2029
854 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the United States acquire any territory not under its sovereignty (as of Issuance) before Jan
Will the United States acquire any territory not under its sovereignty (as of Issuance) before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 2027
KXUSAEXPANDTERRITORY-27JAN01
Will the United States acquire any territory not under its sovereignty (as of Issuance) before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 2028
KXUSAEXPANDTERRITORY-28JAN01
Will the United States acquire any territory not under its sovereignty (as of Issuance) before Jan 21, 2029?: Before Jan 21, 2029
KXUSAEXPANDTERRITORY-29JAN21
Analysis
This market asks whether the United States will acquire territory outside its current sovereignty by January 21, 2029—a roughly 2.3-year window. The 21% probability reflects traders' assessment that territorial acquisition is unlikely but non-negligible. The low probability reflects the rarity of sovereignty transfers in modern international law, though it could rise if geopolitical tensions escalate or if existing territorial disputes (such as regarding Greenland, Canada, or Panama Canal control) become active policy priorities. The main uncertainty resolves through either a formal territorial acquisition occurring before the deadline or the date passing without one. Shorter-term contracts pricing at 4-13% suggest traders assign minimal probability to near-term acquisition, concentrating expected risk toward late 2028 or early 2029.
- ›Current U.S. policy statements and official positions on territorial expansion or acquisition
- ›Geopolitical events or major shifts in U.S. foreign policy direction between now and January 2029
- ›International law and precedent: voluntary cessions of territory by other nations are extremely rare in the 21st century
- ›Specific territorial disputes or historical claims that could plausibly become active negotiation topics
- ›Definition and verification: what legally constitutes a recognized acquisition of sovereignty versus informal control or influence
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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