SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·5 source contracts·Kalshi 5·refreshed just now·Closes May 6, 2027 · 255d

Will Venture Global, Inc. report Above 1900 tbtu lng volumes in fiscal 2026

Leader sits at 95% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 90%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

95%

Above 1780 tbtu

runner-up 90¢leader 95¢

Outcomes

5

winner-take-all

Runner-up

90¢

Above 1820 tbtu

Spread

5pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 6, 2027

255 days

Venue

Kalshi

5 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAbove 1780 tbtu: 35% (10 days, 5 points)Above 1780 tbtu: 35% on 2026-08-20Above 1820 tbtu: 87% (10 days, 10 points)Above 1820 tbtu: 87% on 2026-08-23Above 1860 tbtu: 59% (10 days, 10 points)Above 1860 tbtu: 59% on 2026-08-23
Above 1780 tbtu35¢Above 1820 tbtu87¢Above 1860 tbtu59¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 10d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

Venture Global's fiscal 2026 LNG production volumes will determine its output capacity relative to contracted commitments. Markets currently price a 95% chance the company exceeds 1,780 tbtu but only 22% odds it surpasses 1,900 tbtu, suggesting modest growth expectations. Production levels depend on successful plant ramp-ups, particularly Plaquemines and Calcasieu Pass facilities coming online and operating at planned capacity. Operational disruptions—weather, maintenance, technical issues—or accelerated production could shift these probabilities materially. The resolution will occur when Venture Global releases its fiscal 2026 financial results, likely in early 2027, revealing actual throughput volumes against these tiered benchmarks.

  • Plaquemines and Calcasieu Pass LNG plants' production ramp rates and operational reliability through 2026
  • Contract volumes already signed with customers versus available capacity across all Venture Global facilities
  • Operational downtime frequency, planned maintenance schedules, and unplanned outages during the fiscal year
  • Actual feedstock (natural gas) availability and delivery constraints from upstream suppliers
  • Fiscal 2026 year-end reported volumes in Venture Global's official financial statements or investor disclosures

What moved the line

  • Aug 18Above 1780 tbtu45pp9550¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 21Above 1820 tbtu22pp6587¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 18Above 1820 tbtu20pp8666¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 20Above 1780 tbtu13pp4835¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 21Above 1860 tbtu12pp4759¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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