Will Hailey Bieber be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2
18 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2027
293 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
18 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Lady Gaga be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026
Will Lady Gaga be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026?: Lady Gaga
KXVOGUECOVER-27-LAD
Cluster 2
Will A’ja Wilson be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026
Will A’ja Wilson be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026?: A’ja Wilson
KXVOGUECOVER-27-AJA
Cluster 3
Will Alex Consani be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026
Will Alex Consani be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026?: Alex Consani
KXVOGUECOVER-27-ALE
Cluster 4
Will Ariana Grande be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026
Will Ariana Grande be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026?: Ariana Grande
KXVOGUECOVER-27-ARI
Cluster 5
Will Bella Hadid be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026
Will Bella Hadid be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026?: Bella Hadid
KXVOGUECOVER-27-BEL
Cluster 6
Will Beyoncé be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026
Will Beyoncé be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026?: Beyoncé
KXVOGUECOVER-27-BEY
Cluster 7
Will Charli xcx be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026
Will Charli xcx be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026?: Charli xcx
KXVOGUECOVER-27-CHA
Cluster 8
Will Dua Lipa be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026
Will Dua Lipa be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026?: Dua Lipa
KXVOGUECOVER-27-DUA
Cluster 9
Will Florence Pugh be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026
Will Florence Pugh be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026?: Florence Pugh
KXVOGUECOVER-27-FLO
Cluster 10
Will Hailey Bieber be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026
Will Hailey Bieber be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026?: Hailey Bieber
KXVOGUECOVER-27-HAI
Cluster 11
Will Jennie be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026
Will Jennie be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026?: Jennie
KXVOGUECOVER-27-JENN
Cluster 12
Will Kendall Jenner be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026
Will Kendall Jenner be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026?: Kendall Jenner
KXVOGUECOVER-27-KEN
Cluster 13
Will Margot Robbie be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026
Will Margot Robbie be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026?: Margot Robbie
KXVOGUECOVER-27-MAR
Cluster 14
Will Miley Cyrus be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026
Will Miley Cyrus be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026?: Miley Cyrus
KXVOGUECOVER-27-MIL
Cluster 15
Will Nicole Kidman be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026
Will Nicole Kidman be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026?: Nicole Kidman
KXVOGUECOVER-27-NIC
Cluster 16
Will Rihanna be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026
Will Rihanna be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026?: Rihanna
KXVOGUECOVER-27-RIH
Cluster 17
Will Sabrina Carpenter be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026
Cluster 18
Will Taylor Swift be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026
Will Taylor Swift be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026?: Taylor Swift
KXVOGUECOVER-27-TAY
Analysis
This represents the probability that Hailey Bieber will appear on the cover of a US Vogue issue released in 2026. As of late July 2026, only five months remain in the year, which significantly constrains the remaining opportunities for new cover features. Hailey Bieber is an established celebrity with prior Vogue coverage, but her appearance on the cover depends on editorial timing decisions, competing cover candidates, and whether she has a relevant cultural moment or project launching. The low probability reflects both the limited calendar window remaining and Vogue's selective cover selection process. Resolution occurs automatically on December 31, 2026, when the year concludes and all published issues become finalized.
- ›Only five months remain in 2026; Vogue typically publishes 12-13 issues yearly, leaving roughly 4-5 potential remaining 2026 issues
- ›Hailey Bieber has been featured on Vogue covers previously but competition for remaining 2026 issues includes established celebrities and emerging figures
- ›Vogue cover selection typically aligns with major film releases, album launches, fashion collections, or significant personal milestones rather than random timing
- ›No publicly announced Hailey Bieber major project or campaign launch has been widely reported for the remaining 2026 calendar
- ›The 7% market probability is notably lower than comparable celebrities on Kalshi, suggesting market assessment she is unlikely to secure a 2026 cover slot
What moved the line
- Sep 3Lady Gaga↓18pp40→22¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 4Lady Gaga↑17pp22→39¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 3Taylor Swift↓8pp25→17¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 4Taylor Swift↑8pp17→25¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 4Sabrina Carpenter↓7pp10→3¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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