Will Vermont’s maple syrup production for 2027 be above 2.9 million gallons
Leader sits at 92% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 86%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 2.7 million gallons
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
86¢
Above 2.8 million gallons
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$590
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2027
311 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Vermont’s maple syrup production for 2027 be above
Will Vermont’s maple syrup production for 2027 be above 2.9 million gallons?: Above 2.9 million gallons
KXVTMAPLE-27JUN30-T2.9
Will Vermont’s maple syrup production for 2027 be above 3.0 million gallons?: Above 3.0 million gallons
KXVTMAPLE-27JUN30-T3.0
Will Vermont’s maple syrup production for 2027 be above 3.1 million gallons?: Above 3.1 million gallons
KXVTMAPLE-27JUN30-T3.1
Will Vermont’s maple syrup production for 2027 be above 3.4 million gallons?: Above 3.4 million gallons
KXVTMAPLE-27JUN30-T3.4
Will Vermont’s maple syrup production for 2027 be above 3.2 million gallons?: Above 3.2 million gallons
KXVTMAPLE-27JUN30-T3.2
Will Vermont’s maple syrup production for 2027 be above 2.8 million gallons?: Above 2.8 million gallons
KXVTMAPLE-27JUN30-T2.8
Will Vermont’s maple syrup production for 2027 be above 3.3 million gallons?: Above 3.3 million gallons
KXVTMAPLE-27JUN30-T3.3
Will Vermont’s maple syrup production for 2027 be above 2.7 million gallons?: Above 2.7 million gallons
KXVTMAPLE-27JUN30-T2.7
Analysis
The 81% probability reflects market expectation that Vermont will produce more than 2.9 million gallons of maple syrup in 2027. This threshold sits above Vermont's recent production levels, which have historically ranged between 2.0 and 2.9 million gallons annually. Weather conditions during the 2027 sugaring season—particularly spring temperatures and freeze-thaw cycles critical for sap flow—represent the primary driver of production outcomes. Tree health and tapping rates across Vermont's commercial operations also influence yield potential. The resolution depends on official production data from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, typically released in late summer or early fall 2027 following the March-April sugaring season. Market pricing suggests meaningful uncertainty remains, with only 43% probability assigned to exceeding 3.1 million gallons, indicating skepticism about reaching record-high production levels.
- ›Vermont's actual maple syrup production over the past decade has ranged from approximately 2.0-2.9 million gallons, making 2.9M a near-historical ceiling
- ›Spring 2027 weather patterns—particularly the frequency and intensity of freeze-thaw cycles in March-April—directly determine sap flow rates and syrup yield
- ›Commercial tapping intensity and the number of active producer operations in Vermont for 2027 season affects aggregate output capacity
- ›The USDA NASS will release official Vermont maple syrup production figures in late summer/early fall 2027, providing definitive resolution
- ›Steeply declining probabilities at higher thresholds (66% for 2.9M to 6% for 3.3M) indicate the market views production substantially above 3.0M gallons as unlikely
What moved the line
- Aug 20Above 3.1 million gallons↓31pp48→17¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Above 3.1 million gallons↑26pp17→43¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 3.0 million gallons↓9pp68→59¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Above 3.0 million gallons↑7pp55→62¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Above 2.9 million gallons↓6pp83→77¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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