Will Honduras win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
7%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
7 contracts
Closes
Jan 15, 2031
1577 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will France win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup
Will France win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?: France
KXWC-30-FRA
Cluster 2
Will Spain win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup
Will Spain win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?: Spain
KXWC-30-ESP
Cluster 3
Will Portugal win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup
Will Portugal win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?: Portugal
KXWC-30-POR
Cluster 4
Will Argentina win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup
Will Argentina win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?: Argentina
KXWC-30-ARG
Cluster 5
Will Brazil win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup
Will Brazil win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?: Brazil
KXWC-30-BRA
Cluster 6
Will England win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup
Will England win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?: England
KXWC-30-ENG
Cluster 7
Will Germany win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup
Will Germany win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup?: Germany
KXWC-30-GER
Analysis
This probability represents a 7% chance that Honduras wins the 2030 FIFA World Cup, based on aggregated betting data. Honduras faces significant structural disadvantages compared to traditional World Cup contenders: the country has never advanced beyond the World Cup quarterfinals, lacks the depth of professional talent found in established footballing nations, and generates limited domestic revenue for player development. The current estimate reflects Honduras's historical performance, current FIFA rankings, and squad quality relative to favorites like Spain (17%), France (13%), and Brazil (6%). The probability could shift substantially based on qualifying performance during the 2026-2028 period, unexpected talent emergence in the national team, or coaching changes that improve tactical organization. The 2030 World Cup itself, scheduled for late 2030, will ultimately resolve this through Honduras's actual tournament performance.
- ›Honduras has never won a World Cup or achieved results beyond quarterfinal appearances, limiting historical precedent for such an outcome
- ›The nation currently ranks outside the top 50 in FIFA standings while Spain, France, and Brazil rank in the top 5-10, reflecting substantial competitive gaps
- ›Honduras's domestic league generates minimal revenue compared to European and South American powerhouses, constraining player development infrastructure
- ›Qualifying performance from 2026-2028 in CONCACAF rounds will provide empirical data on current squad strength and trajectory
- ›Coaching quality and tactical innovation could materially affect Honduras's odds, as demonstrated by previous overperformances by smaller nations under elite management
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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