Will three teams qualify from Group L to the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Leader sits at 92% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 85%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Group C
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
85¢
Group A
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$7K
modest
Closes
Jul 5, 2026
10 days
Venue
Kalshi
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will three teams qualify from Group
Will three teams qualify from Group G to the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group G
KXWC3RDPLACEQUAL-26-G
Will three teams qualify from Group A to the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group A
KXWC3RDPLACEQUAL-26-A
Will three teams qualify from Group B to the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group B
KXWC3RDPLACEQUAL-26-B
Will three teams qualify from Group C to the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group C
KXWC3RDPLACEQUAL-26-C
Will three teams qualify from Group F to the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group F
KXWC3RDPLACEQUAL-26-F
Will three teams qualify from Group L to the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group L
KXWC3RDPLACEQUAL-26-L
Will three teams qualify from Group K to the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group K
KXWC3RDPLACEQUAL-26-K
Will three teams qualify from Group J to the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group J
KXWC3RDPLACEQUAL-26-J
Will three teams qualify from Group I to the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group I
KXWC3RDPLACEQUAL-26-I
Will three teams qualify from Group H to the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group H
KXWC3RDPLACEQUAL-26-H
Will three teams qualify from Group E to the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group E
KXWC3RDPLACEQUAL-26-E
Will three teams qualify from Group D to the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Group D
KXWC3RDPLACEQUAL-26-D
Analysis
This market estimates a 71% probability that three of the four teams in Group L will advance to the knockout stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. A group produces three qualifiers when one team wins convincingly and two others battle for the second spot, or when the four teams have relatively balanced strength. The current price reflects expectations about the seeding and composition of Group L once the draw is finalized. The main driver pushing the probability higher is the typical competitive balance in modern World Cup groups, where a clear group winner often emerges while the remaining spots become competitive. The biggest catalyst will be the official 2026 World Cup group draw, after which the actual team compositions become known and market prices should adjust significantly based on the participating nations' FIFA rankings and recent performance.
- ›Group draw composition: The probability will shift materially once the 12 groups are officially announced in December 2024 or early 2025, as team strength varies significantly
- ›Historical rate of three-team qualification: Data from recent World Cups shows how frequently groups produce exactly three qualifiers versus four competitive teams
- ›Seeding system: Higher-seeded teams typically secure group exits more reliably, increasing the likelihood of three clear qualifiers rather than four evenly matched teams
- ›Relative strength of available nations: Whether Group L contains multiple competitive mid-tier nations or features dominant teams with clear separation affects qualifier distribution
- ›Current market discrepancy: Group E trades at 72¢ while Group A trades at 55¢, suggesting market participants expect significant variation in group competitiveness across the tournament
What moved the line
- Jun 25Group F↓69pp81→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Group L↓68pp75→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Group J↓62pp69→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Group D↓59pp66→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Group I↓54pp60→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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