Will the fastest goal be scored in the 2nd minute or earlier across all 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup matches
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
27%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
1 contracts
Closes
Jul 27, 2026
32 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the fastest goal be scored in the 1st minute across all 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup matches
Analysis
This market estimates the likelihood that a goal will be scored within the first two minutes across all 64 matches of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The 6% probability reflects historical rarity of extremely early goals combined with modern defensive tactics and goalkeeper positioning in international tournament play. Early goals depend on tactical setup—teams employing aggressive high-pressing systems increase this likelihood, while cautious opening phases reduce it. The World Cup's format, with 64 matches starting at different times and involving diverse team strategies, creates multiple opportunities for an early goal, yet the data suggests such outcomes remain uncommon. Resolution occurs once the tournament concludes in late 2026. Key drivers include team composition changes from qualifying, weather conditions affecting early match tempo, and whether opening fixtures feature attacking-minded teams. Historical World Cup data and current team form leading into the tournament will significantly influence final odds.
- ›Historical frequency of goals in minutes 1-2 across previous World Cups and qualifier matches
- ›Distribution of attacking versus defensive team tactics among the 32 qualified nations entering the tournament
- ›Early match conditions including weather, pitch conditions, and referee interpretation of physical play in opening minutes
- ›Fixture scheduling and whether high-attacking-intent teams face each other in early matches
- ›Goalkeeper distribution and modern defensive positioning trends in international football circa 2026
What moved the line
- Jun 251st minute↓5pp32→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 191st minute↑4pp35→39¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 221st minute↓4pp40→36¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 231st minute↓4pp36→32¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 201st minute↑3pp39→42¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (27% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In sports
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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