Will the winner of the Golden Boot score 13+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Leader sits at 91% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 75%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
9+ total goals
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
75¢
10+ total goals
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jul 27, 2026
14 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the winner of the Golden Boot score
Will the winner of the Golden Boot score 11+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 11+ total goals
KXWCGBOOTGOALS-26-11
Will the winner of the Golden Boot score 13+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 13+ total goals
KXWCGBOOTGOALS-26-13
Will the winner of the Golden Boot score 12+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 12+ total goals
KXWCGBOOTGOALS-26-12
Will the winner of the Golden Boot score 9+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 9+ total goals
KXWCGBOOTGOALS-26-9
Will the winner of the Golden Boot score 10+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 10+ total goals
KXWCGBOOTGOALS-26-10
Will the winner of the Golden Boot score 14+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 14+ total goals
KXWCGBOOTGOALS-26-14
Analysis
This probability assesses whether the 2026 World Cup's top scorer will accumulate 13 or more goals during the tournament. The 90% price on the 6+ goal threshold indicates strong market confidence that the Golden Boot winner will score moderately, but prices decline sharply at higher thresholds—the 13+ outcome trades at 29 cents, suggesting roughly 1 in 3 odds. The dropoff reflects uncertainty about whether any single player will maintain elite finishing form across multiple knockout stages, or whether goals will distribute among multiple forwards. Historical Golden Boot winners have varied widely; recent tournaments saw winners with 6-8 goals, while outliers like 2014 (James Rodríguez, 6 goals) and 2018 (Kane, 6 goals) scored lower despite strong squad performances. The outcome resolves on July 11, 2026, following the tournament's conclusion.
- ›Golden Boot winners in recent World Cups (2014-2022) scored between 6-8 goals; 13+ would represent a significant outlier requiring sustained offensive performance
- ›The 2026 tournament expands to 48 teams with 80 matches total, potentially distributing scoring opportunities differently than prior 32-team formats
- ›Market prices show declining conviction at each threshold increment—from 90% at 6+ down to 29% at 13+—indicating genuine disagreement about elite performance ceilings
- ›Historical outliers like Gerd Müller (1970) with 10 goals are rare; recent tournaments suggest scoring consolidation among fewer players rather than single-dominant performances
- ›Tournament structure and knockout-stage advancement rates for different confederations will determine whether frontrunners accumulate sufficient matches to reach 13 goals
What moved the line
- Jul 79+ total goals↑52pp27→79¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 69+ total goals↓35pp62→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 610+ total goals↑30pp38→68¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 711+ total goals↑19pp30→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 712+ total goals↑18pp18→36¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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