Will Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Inc. report Above 860 thousand total rooms in Q1 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 46% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
46%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$22K
7 contracts
Closes
Aug 21, 2026
105 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Vail Resorts Inc. report Above
Will Vail Resorts Inc. report Above 7.2 million skier visits in Q3 2026?: Above 7.2 million
KXMTN-26JUNSKIER-7200000.0
Will Vail Resorts Inc. report Above 6.9 million skier visits in Q3 2026?: Above 6.9 million
KXMTN-26JUNSKIER-6900000.0
Will Vail Resorts Inc. report Above 7.5 million skier visits in Q3 2026?: Above 7.5 million
KXMTN-26JUNSKIER-7500000.0
Will Vail Resorts Inc. report Above 6.6 million skier visits in Q3 2026?: Above 6.6 million
KXMTN-26JUNSKIER-6600000.0
Will Vail Resorts Inc. report Above 7.8 million skier visits in Q3 2026?: Above 7.8 million
KXMTN-26JUNSKIER-7800000.0
Cluster 2
Will CAVA Group Inc. report Above 460 cava restaurants in Q1 2026
Will CAVA Group Inc. report Above 460 cava restaurants in Q1 2026?: Above 460
KXCAVA-26MAYREST-460
Cluster 3
Will Tesla Inc. report above 430000 total deliveries in Q2 2026
Will Tesla Inc. report above 430000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?: above 430000
KXTSLA-26JULDELIV-430000.0
What moved the line
- May 7Above 460↓32pp51→19¢ · Kalshi
- May 7above 430000↑28pp21→49¢ · Kalshi
- May 6above 430000↓25pp46→21¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Above 7.2 million↑5pp51→56¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Above 460↓3pp54→51¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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