What will Meta (META) hit in April 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 17 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
31%
17 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$58K
17 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
197 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “What price” vs “What will happen before GTA VI”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What price
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 100,000
0xdaa486…990f
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000
0xacb333…e369
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000
0x024b68…6fee
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000
0x752fa6…8a8c
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000
0xce3c54…2c56
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 90,000
0xbb379a…f50e
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000
0x1e5564…baa2
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↓ 60
0x0135f2…c27e
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000
0x2745c3…a2a2
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500
0xcf25cc…9780
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 130,000
0x885a6a…a859
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 110,000
0x63eaf4…7b01
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 160,000
0x472c90…54b0
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↓ 16
0x8555a0…b7bf
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 30,000
0x903a13…69ef
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 5,500
0xb75b8c…aac8
Cluster 2
What will happen before GTA VI
What will happen before GTA VI?: Bitcoin hits $1m
0xbb57cc…89d2
Analysis
This represents a 33% probability that Meta's stock price will exceed $730 at some point during April 2026. The prediction reflects current market expectations about Meta's near-term valuation trajectory. Key factors driving this probability include Meta's recent financial performance, competitive positioning in AI and advertising markets, and macroeconomic conditions affecting tech valuations. The probability could shift substantially based on Meta's Q1 2026 earnings report (typically released in late April), which would provide concrete financial data and forward guidance. Additionally, broader tech sector movements and announcements regarding Meta's AI initiatives or capital expenditure plans could materially influence whether investors push the stock toward or away from this price level.
- ›Meta's Q1 2026 earnings release and guidance in late April will directly impact April month-end stock pricing
- ›Historical volatility in Meta stock during earnings periods creates substantial uncertainty about whether the $730 threshold gets touched
- ›Competitive dynamics in AI infrastructure spending and advertising tech will influence investor sentiment toward Meta valuations
- ›Macroeconomic factors including interest rate expectations and tech sector rotation can cause significant moves across the period
- ›Meta's capital allocation decisions and shareholder return announcements may strengthen or weaken demand for the stock
What moved the line
- Jun 15↓ 60↓14pp82→68¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15↓ 1,500↓11pp81→70¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15↑ 90,000↑5pp28→33¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16↑ 90,000↓5pp33→28¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 12↓ 60↓4pp89→85¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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