What price will Ethena hit in 2026?
Leader sits at 68% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 22%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↓ 0.04
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
22¢
↑ 0.32
Spread
46pp
contested
24h volume
$21
thin orderbook
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Polymarket
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What price will Ethena hit in 2026
What price will Ethena hit in 2026?: ↑ 0.80
0xfe5489…4471
What price will Ethena hit in 2026?: ↑ 0.36
0x8d6681…cf2f
What price will Ethena hit in 2026?: ↑ 1.00
0x6a93c4…6eaf
What price will Ethena hit in 2026?: ↑ 0.44
0xc44acb…2ba5
What price will Ethena hit in 2026?: ↑ 0.70
0x480734…0849
What price will Ethena hit in 2026?: ↓ 0.04
0x900dd3…a940
What price will Ethena hit in 2026?: ↑ 0.48
0x31ef3f…76d1
What price will Ethena hit in 2026?: ↑ 0.60
0x8b6512…dcea
What price will Ethena hit in 2026?: ↑ 1.20
0x2073b8…70f3
What price will Ethena hit in 2026?: ↑ 0.32
0x3bbb47…32de
What price will Ethena hit in 2026?: ↑ 0.40
0xedfa2e…8a03
What price will Ethena hit in 2026?: ↑ 0.52
0x07a1ea…846d
Analysis
This market estimates a 49% probability that Ethena's token price will end 2026 above $1.20, making it the most likely outcome among four price-range scenarios. The distribution reflects uncertainty about whether Ethena, a synthetic dollar protocol, can sustain demand for its USDe stablecoin through competitive pressures and macroeconomic conditions. Bullish sentiment (contracts above $1.20 combined represent roughly 9% probability) is outweighed by bearish positioning, with the downside scenario ($0.04) at 43% probability. Trading volume concentrates on the upside $1.20 outcome, suggesting selective interest from conviction traders. Resolution depends primarily on Ethena's ability to maintain yield competitiveness, retain stablecoin adoption, and navigate regulatory changes through end-2026. The gap between the leading bullish and bearish scenarios indicates substantial disagreement about the protocol's near-term trajectory.
- ›Ethena's stablecoin (USDe) total value locked and usage trends through 2026, which directly affect token utility and demand
- ›Competitive dynamics with other yield-bearing stablecoins (Lido-backed protocols, Curve incentives, Aave integration) that could compress Ethena's yield advantages
- ›Regulatory clarity on synthetic assets and perpetual funding in major jurisdictions, which could restrict or expand Ethena's addressable market
- ›Bitcoin and Ethereum volatility, since Ethena's funding-rate yield depends on sustained derivatives market activity
- ›Protocol revenue retention and tokenomics changes, including potential governance decisions on fee structures or token emission schedules
What moved the line
- Jun 12↓ 0.04↑15pp52→67¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 11↑ 0.32↑3pp23→26¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 12↑ 0.32↓3pp26→23¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 11↓ 0.04↑3pp49→52¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 14↓ 0.04↑3pp65→68¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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