What price will Ethena hit in April?
Leader sits at 72% across 18 bound outcomes, runner-up at 72%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↓ 1,500
Outcomes
18
winner-take-all
Runner-up
72¢
↓ 60
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$58K
liquid
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
197 days
Venue
Polymarket
18 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What price
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 100,000
0xdaa486…990f
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000
0xacb333…e369
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000
0x024b68…6fee
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000
0x752fa6…8a8c
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000
0xce3c54…2c56
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 90,000
0xbb379a…f50e
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000
0x1e5564…baa2
What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↓ 60
0x0135f2…c27e
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000
0x2745c3…a2a2
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 6,000
0x6132cc…918a
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500
0xcf25cc…9780
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 130,000
0x885a6a…a859
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 110,000
0x63eaf4…7b01
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 160,000
0x472c90…54b0
What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↓ 16
0x8555a0…b7bf
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 30,000
0x903a13…69ef
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 5,500
0xb75b8c…aac8
What price will Ethena hit in 2026?: ↑ 1.20
0x2073b8…70f3
Analysis
This market tracks whether Ethena (ENA) will reach a specific price target by April 2026, with current odds at 60% for the leading outcome. Ethena is a synthetic dollar protocol built on Ethereum, so its price performance correlates with broader crypto market cycles and stablecoin demand. The primary factors influencing this probability are Ethereum's price trajectory—since ENA's value depends partly on ETH performance—and market adoption of Ethena's USDe stablecoin product. Regulatory clarity around synthetic assets and stablecoins could significantly shift expectations. The main uncertainty resolves in April 2026 when the actual price becomes observable; until then, the market reflects trader expectations about crypto market conditions, institutional adoption, and macroeconomic factors affecting risk appetite for digital assets.
- ›Ethereum's price movement in 2026, since ENA operates as a derivative protocol on the Ethereum network
- ›Adoption metrics of Ethena's USDe stablecoin, including total value locked and transaction volumes
- ›Regulatory developments affecting stablecoins and synthetic asset protocols in major jurisdictions
- ›Competitive dynamics with other stablecoin protocols and broader crypto market risk sentiment
- ›Protocol revenue and tokenomics updates that could affect ENA's fundamental valuation
What moved the line
- Jun 15↓ 60↓14pp82→68¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15↓ 1,500↓11pp81→70¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15↑ 90,000↑5pp28→33¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16↑ 90,000↓5pp33→28¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 12↓ 60↓4pp89→85¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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