SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 20 outcomes20 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 8 min ago

What price will Ethena hit in April?

Bracket↑ 0.16

Leader sits at 95% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 60%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

95%

↑ 80,000

runner-up 60¢leader 95¢

Outcomes

20

winner-take-all

Runner-up

60¢

↓ 60

Spread

35pp

contested

24h volume

$88K

liquid

Closes

not derived

Venue

Polymarket

20 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtoday↑ 80,000: 95% (25 days, 25 points)↑ 80,000: 95% on 2026-05-02↓ 60: 64% (25 days, 21 points)↓ 60: 64% on 2026-05-02↑ 90,000: 61% (25 days, 25 points)↑ 90,000: 61% on 2026-05-02
↑ 80,00095¢↓ 6064¢↑ 90,00061¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 25d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

What price

20 contracts$88K
OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000

0x024b68…6fee

28¢2pp$29KP

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000

0x1e5564…baa2

22¢1pp$17KP

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000

0xce3c54…2c56

38¢4pp$9KP

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 110,000

0x63eaf4…7b01

26¢+1pp$7KP

What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000

0xacb333…e369

19¢+1pp$7KP

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000

0x752fa6…8a8c

49¢1pp$6KP

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 80,000

0x6e1fbd…5a55

95¢+3pp$4KP

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 30,000

0x903a13…69ef

12¢+7pp$2KP

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000

0x2745c3…a2a2

14¢±0$2KP

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 160,000

0x472c90…54b0

8¢+1pp$1KP

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 100,000

0xdaa486…990f

41¢+1pp$1KP

What price will Solana hit in 2026?: ↓ 60

0x0135f2…c27e

60¢2pp$1KP

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 90,000

0xbb379a…f50e

60¢+4pp$907P

What price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026?: ↓ 16

0x8555a0…b7bf

13¢8pp$532P

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 130,000

0x885a6a…a859

13¢6pp$433P

What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500

0xcf25cc…9780

48¢+2pp$360P

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 200,000

0xac32e7…68cd

4¢8pp$299P

What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 6,000

0x6132cc…918a

8¢1pp$244P

What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 5,500

0xb75b8c…aac8

10¢2pp$100P

What price will Ethena hit in 2026?: ↑ 1.20

0x2073b8…70f3

7¢±0$0P

What moved the line

  • Apr 28↑ 1.2025pp631¢ · Polymarket
  • Apr 29↑ 1.2024pp317¢ · Polymarket
  • Apr 28↓ 1619pp1938¢ · Polymarket
  • Apr 29↑ 5,50017pp2912¢ · Polymarket
  • Apr 28↑ 5,50016pp1329¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.