Will A'ja Wilson win Defensive Player of the Year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$192
8 contracts
Closes
Dec 1, 2027
571 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Napheesa Collier win Defensive Player of the Year
Will Napheesa Collier win Defensive Player of the Year?: Napheesa Collier
KXWNBADPOY-26-NCOLLIER24
Cluster 2
Will Gabby Williams win Defensive Player of the Year
Will Gabby Williams win Defensive Player of the Year?: Gabby Williams
KXWNBADPOY-26-GWILLIAMS1
Cluster 3
Will A'ja Wilson win Defensive Player of the Year
Will A'ja Wilson win Defensive Player of the Year?: A'ja Wilson
KXWNBADPOY-26-AWILSON22
Cluster 4
Will Angel Reese win Defensive Player of the Year
Will Angel Reese win Defensive Player of the Year?: Angel Reese
KXWNBADPOY-26-AREESE5
Cluster 5
Will Alyssa Thomas win Defensive Player of the Year
Will Alyssa Thomas win Defensive Player of the Year?: Alyssa Thomas
KXWNBADPOY-26-ATHOMAS25
Cluster 6
Will Aliyah Boston win Defensive Player of the Year
Will Aliyah Boston win Defensive Player of the Year?: Aliyah Boston
KXWNBADPOY-26-ABOSTON7
Cluster 7
Will Alanna Smith win Defensive Player of the Year
Will Alanna Smith win Defensive Player of the Year?: Alanna Smith
KXWNBADPOY-26-ASMITH8
Cluster 8
Will Cameron Brink win Defensive Player of the Year
Will Cameron Brink win Defensive Player of the Year?: Cameron Brink
KXWNBADPOY-26-CBRINK22
Analysis
This 10% probability reflects market expectations that A'ja Wilson will win the 2026 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award. Wilson currently faces significant competition from edge rushers like Will Anderson Jr. and Maxx Crosby, who command higher probabilities. The projection depends on Wilson's defensive statistics through the season—particularly sack totals, tackles for loss, and impact plays—relative to other strong defensive candidates. The award typically goes to players with standout individual performances and team visibility. The probability will clarify substantially as the regular season progresses and clearer performance patterns emerge, with final determination occurring at season's end when voting takes place. Current low trading volume and minimal movement in her contract suggest limited market activity around this outcome.
- ›A'ja Wilson plays in the NBA, not NFL; DPOY voters are considering NFL defensive ends and linebackers, creating a categorical mismatch
- ›Market assigns higher probabilities to edge rushers (Anderson Jr. at 4¢, Crosby at 6¢) who historically dominate this award
- ›The probability would increase if Wilson posted elite defensive statistics (steals, blocks, defensive rating) that outpaced competitors
- ›DPOY voting occurs post-season, making mid-season performance data the primary resolution driver
- ›Extremely low trading volume ($0-$166 across contracts) suggests this market has minimal participation and may not reflect deep analytical consensus
What moved the line
- May 6Cameron Brink↓6pp10→4¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.