Will A'ja Wilson win Finals MVP
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$16
8 contracts
Closes
Dec 1, 2027
524 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will A'ja Wilson win Finals MVP
Will A'ja Wilson win Finals MVP?: A'ja Wilson
KXWNBAFINALSMVP-26-AWIL
Cluster 2
Will Breanna Stewart win Finals MVP
Will Breanna Stewart win Finals MVP?: Breanna Stewart
KXWNBAFINALSMVP-26-BSTE
Cluster 3
Will Caitlin Clark win Finals MVP
Will Caitlin Clark win Finals MVP?: Caitlin Clark
KXWNBAFINALSMVP-26-CCLA
Cluster 4
Will Gabby Williams win Finals MVP
Will Gabby Williams win Finals MVP?: Gabby Williams
KXWNBAFINALSMVP-26-GWIL
Cluster 5
Will Jackie Young win Finals MVP
Will Jackie Young win Finals MVP?: Jackie Young
KXWNBAFINALSMVP-26-JYOU
Cluster 6
Will Napheesa Collier win Finals MVP
Will Napheesa Collier win Finals MVP?: Napheesa Collier
KXWNBAFINALSMVP-26-NCOL
Cluster 7
Will Paige Bueckers win Finals MVP
Will Paige Bueckers win Finals MVP?: Paige Bueckers
KXWNBAFINALSMVP-26-PBUE
Cluster 8
Will Sabrina Ionescu win Finals MVP
Will Sabrina Ionescu win Finals MVP?: Sabrina Ionescu
KXWNBAFINALSMVP-26-SION
Analysis
This 7% probability reflects a prediction market's assessment that A'ja Wilson has a roughly 1-in-14 chance of winning the 2026 WNBA Finals MVP award. The low probability primarily reflects that Finals MVP voting typically favors the best overall performer across a series, and multiple other players currently hold higher market probabilities, suggesting analysts see stronger candidates. Wilson's probability would increase if Las Vegas advances deep into the playoffs and she delivers elite scoring, rebounding, and efficiency in Finals games. The 2026 WNBA Finals, which will determine the actual winner, represent the key event that resolves this uncertainty. Wilson's regular season and playoff performance leading into the Finals will provide data to reassess these probabilities.
- ›Las Vegas's playoff seeding and path to the Finals—teams with lower seeds or tougher opponents have less Finals opportunity
- ›A'ja Wilson's scoring efficiency and rebounding volume in playoff games compared to other stars—Finals MVP voters weight high-volume, efficient performances
- ›Competing stars' performance in their own playoff runs—if higher-probability candidates underperform, Wilson's relative odds improve
- ›Wilson's historical Finals MVP voting record—whether she tends to receive significant voting share when her team reaches the Finals
- ›Las Vegas's championship odds overall—lower championship probability correlates with lower individual Finals MVP probability
What moved the line
- Jun 22Paige Bueckers↑9pp1→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22A'ja Wilson↓4pp22→18¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will Claire Valdez be victorious in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 69% · 1d
- Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be defeated in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 37% · 2d
- Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 6d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 7d
- Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$180Blast 94% · 7d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.