Women's Pro Basketball Semifinals Qualifiers

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that one of five women's professional basketball teams will advance to the semifinals. The 59% contract price for the leading team indicates moderately confident odds, with Seattle, Phoenix, and Connecticut showing the most trading activity. The market has priced in uncertainties around regular-season performance, playoff matchups, and injury status heading into the postseason. The primary catalyst for movement will be playoff games themselves—as teams progress or are eliminated, contract prices will sharply realign. Tournament results over the next 2-4 weeks will resolve most uncertainty, with seeding, head-to-head matchups, and late-season roster decisions all influencing which teams reach the semifinals. Current spreads suggest the favorite has a meaningful but not overwhelming advantage.

• ›The leading contract trades at 59 cents versus 24-53 cents for competitors, indicating concentration of probability but not consensus dominance
• ›Seattle shows highest trading volume ($1,292 in 24 hours) despite lowest price (24 cents), suggesting either contrarian interest or volatility around that outcome
• ›Phoenix and Connecticut both trade near 43-46 cents with minimal volume, indicating settled but uncertain positioning
• ›Kalshi's 10 contracts span five named teams, meaning the market has fragmented confidence across multiple potential qualifiers rather than pricing one team as dominant
• ›Washington and Las Vegas trade at minimal volumes ($20 and $10 respectively), suggesting lowest perceived probability of semifinal qualification

What moved the line

• Jul 7New York↑6pp36→42¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 7Dallas↑5pp9→14¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 7Indiana↑5pp15→20¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 7Atlanta↓4pp28→24¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 8Golden State↑3pp23→26¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds