Will Australia win the Women's T20 World Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
20%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$35K
5 contracts
Closes
Jul 20, 2026
25 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will West Indies win the Women's T20 World Cup
Will West Indies win the Women's T20 World Cup?: West Indies
KXWT20WORLDCUP-26-WI
Cluster 2
Will South Africa win the Women's T20 World Cup
Will South Africa win the Women's T20 World Cup?: South Africa
KXWT20WORLDCUP-26-RSA
Cluster 3
Will India win the Women's T20 World Cup
Will India win the Women's T20 World Cup?: India
KXWT20WORLDCUP-26-IND
Cluster 4
Will England win the Women's T20 World Cup
Will England win the Women's T20 World Cup?: England
KXWT20WORLDCUP-26-ENG
Cluster 5
Will Australia win the Women's T20 World Cup
Will Australia win the Women's T20 World Cup?: Australia
KXWT20WORLDCUP-26-AUS
Analysis
This 22% probability reflects market expectations that Australia will win the next Women's T20 World Cup. Australia is currently rated third-favorite behind India (30¢) and roughly equal with other strong contenders. The relatively modest probability reflects that women's T20 cricket is competitive across multiple nations, with several teams capable of winning on any given tournament. Australia's actual chances depend on squad depth, form leading into the tournament, and performance in group stages. The primary uncertainty driver is whether Australia can maintain recent performance levels or decline relative to rival nations. The next Women's T20 World Cup—scheduled for 2026—will definitively resolve this contract when the tournament concludes. Market movement would likely accelerate as the tournament approaches and team lineups are announced.
- ›Australia's recent T20 World Cup win rate and head-to-head records against India and other top competitors in the lead-up period
- ›Squad availability and player form during the 2026 tournament window, including injuries to key players
- ›Tournament draw and group stage composition, which determines Australia's path to knockout matches
- ›India's simultaneous market probability of 30% suggests the field view India as slight favorites, with Australia rated third among major contenders
- ›The contract volumes are currently zero, indicating limited recent trading activity and potentially stale pricing that may not reflect current team form or recent bilateral series results
What moved the line
- Jun 21India↓4pp19→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Australia↑4pp54→58¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21South Africa↑3pp3→6¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22India↓3pp15→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Australia↑3pp51→54¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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