Will XRP trimmed mean be above $1.50 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract estimates a 49% probability that XRP's trimmed mean price will exceed $1.50 by year-end 2026, with about five months remaining. The probability reflects uncertainty around broader cryptocurrency market conditions, regulatory developments affecting XRP specifically, and macroeconomic factors that typically drive volatile asset prices. Market participants are pricing in meaningful upside potential—the $3.00 contract at 29¢ suggests non-trivial odds of further appreciation—but also acknowledge downside risk, with the $1.50 level commanding less than even odds. Upcoming catalysts include regulatory clarity from the SEC, adoption developments from Ripple's enterprise partnerships, and correlation with broader digital asset market movements. The trimmed mean methodology filters extreme price outliers, reducing manipulation-driven distortions in the final reading.

• ›XRP has traded in a wide range over prior 12-month periods; achieving $1.50+ requires roughly 50-150% appreciation depending on current levels
• ›Regulatory outcomes—particularly SEC enforcement actions or legislative clarity—have historically created sharp price movements in XRP within days or weeks
• ›The contract's multi-outcome structure shows declining probabilities at higher price thresholds ($3.00 at 29¢, $4.50 at 15¢), indicating tiered conviction rather than binary outcomes
• ›Kalshi volume remains relatively modest ($300-500 per contract daily), suggesting limited institutional positioning and potential for repricing on new information
• ›Trimmed mean methodology requires assessment across multiple exchanges; concentration on low-volume venues could inflate or deflate the final settlement value

What moved the line

• Aug 19Above $2.50↓8pp10→2¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 17Above $5.00↓8pp11→3¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 20Above $2.50↑7pp2→9¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 21Above $2.00↑7pp19→26¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 21Above $2.50↑6pp9→15¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

• Will The Warehouse Project at Depot Mayfield be in the Top 5 on Dj Mag Top 100 Clubslast 50% · 0d
• How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Aug 2026last 38% · 1d
• Will Trump nominate Stephen Hahn as FDA commissionerlast 49% · 2d
• Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7 before Aug 21, 2026last 45% · 2d
• Will James Fishback concede defeat in the the 2026 Florida gubernatorial race before Aug 20, 2026last 79% · 3d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds