Will Taco Bell Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 102

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract asks whether Taco Bell's monthly foot traffic will exceed 102 in August 2026. Markets currently price this outcome at 17 cents, suggesting less than a 20% probability. The pricing reflects uncertainty about consumer traffic patterns heading into late summer, when seasonal demand typically fluctuates. Key factors affecting resolution include overall quick-service restaurant traffic trends, regional economic conditions affecting discretionary dining, and Taco Bell's promotional activity during the month. The contract will resolve based on official foot traffic data reported after August closes, which typically becomes available within 1-2 weeks of month-end. Broader QSR traffic metrics and comparable chains' August performance will provide context for whether 102 represents an achievable threshold or an outlier outcome.

• ›August foot traffic baseline: historical Taco Bell August traffic levels and whether 102 represents above-average, average, or below-average performance for the month
• ›Promotional calendar: whether Taco Bell runs limited-time offers or value promotions in August 2026 that typically drive incremental traffic
• ›Competitive environment: traffic patterns at comparable QSR chains in August, indicating whether the broader market is trending toward higher or lower restaurant visits
• ›Weather patterns: summer heat and regional temperature variations affecting outdoor dining preferences and restaurant visit frequency
• ›Economic indicators: consumer spending and discretionary income levels in August 2026 relative to prior year comparisons

What moved the line

• Aug 12Above 101↓11pp49→38¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 9Above 100↓4pp62→58¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 6Above 102↑3pp39→42¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 9Above 102↓3pp42→39¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 9Above 97↓3pp89→86¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds