2026 Midterms Dominate: Over 2.1M Contracts Traded on 600+ Markets
Over 600 individual markets covering Senate, House, and gubernatorial races have traded more than 2.1 million contracts, with key battlegrounds in Texas, Ohio, and Michigan drawing the most volume. Traders are pricing Democrats as favorites to retake the House (91¢) while the Senate remains a toss-up (Democrats 64¢).
Cross-market probability snapshot
Will Democrats win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party
91¢Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party
60¢Will the Democratic Party hold 52 seats in the 120th Congress?: 52
14¢Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?: James Talarico
58¢Will Democratics win the Senate race in Ohio?: Sherrod Brown
58¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
Over 600 individual markets covering Senate, House, and gubernatorial races have traded more than 2.1 million contracts, with key battlegrounds in Texas, Ohio, and Michigan drawing the most volume.
- 02
Traders are pricing Democrats as favorites to retake the House (91¢) while the Senate remains a toss-up (Democrats 64¢).
- 03
The 2026 U.S. midterm elections are the dominant force across prediction markets, with total volume exceeding 2.1 million contracts traded across more than 600 individual markets.
Full analysis
The 2026 U.S. midterm elections are the dominant force across prediction markets, with total volume exceeding 2.1 million contracts traded across more than 600 individual markets. Key battlegrounds include the Senate races in Texas, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, where control of the chamber is sharply contested. The market 'CONTROLH-2026-D' (Democrats win House) is trading at 91¢, while 'CONTROLS-2026-D' (Democrats win Senate) is at 64¢, reflecting a divided outlook. The combo market 'KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-...' for House Republican/Senate Democratic control is at 1¢, indicating low probability of that specific split. Governor races in Florida (GOVPARTYFL-26-R at 75¢) and Georgia (GOVPARTYGA-26-D at 56¢) are also closely watched. Traders should focus on the Senate seat counts, particularly the 'KXDSENATESEATS-27-52' market at 13¢ for the Democratic party holding exactly 52 seats, which would be a narrow majority. The high volume in the 'CONTROLH' and 'CONTROLS' series indicates sustained interest in overall chamber control.
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sf query "2026 senate control democratic"