Graham Platner Dominates Maine Senate Race Markets as Democrats' Best Hope
The Maine Senate race has become the most heavily traded individual election contract, with Graham Platner's dropout probability at just 8% (92¢ that he stays in). Democrats are slight favorites at 59¢, and the outcome is seen as a key battleground for Senate control (Republicans 57¢ to win the chamber).
Cross-market probability snapshot
Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026?: Republican Party
55¢Will Democratics win the Senate race in Maine?: Democratic party
62¢Will Democrats win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party
82¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
The Maine Senate race has become the most heavily traded individual election contract, with Graham Platner's dropout probability at just 8% (92¢ that he stays in).
- 02
Democrats are slight favorites at 59¢, and the outcome is seen as a key battleground for Senate control (Republicans 57¢ to win the chamber).
- 03
The 2026 election cycle is in full swing with over $6.4M in volume across election contracts, and the Maine Senate race is the epicenter.
Full analysis
The 2026 election cycle is in full swing with over $6.4M in volume across election contracts, and the Maine Senate race is the epicenter. Graham Platner, the Democratic candidate, is heavily favored to stay in the race (KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26 at 92¢, 2.1M volume), and the market sees the Democrat winning the seat at 59¢ (SENATEME-26-D) versus the Republican at 40¢ (SENATEME-26-R). The broader battle for Senate control favors Republicans at 57¢ (CONTROLS-2026-R) vs Democrats at 42¢ (CONTROLS-2026-D). House control leans strongly Democratic at 81¢ (CONTROLH-2026-D). Key downballot races include Michigan (Abdul El-Sayed at 85¢ to be the Democratic nominee, KXSENATEMID-26-AELS) and Texas (Republicans favored at 58¢, SENATETX-26-R). The Platner contract is the most liquid indicator of Democratic momentum — if it drops below 85, it would signal serious recruiting problems. Balance of power combo contracts (KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-) show split government as the most likely outcome: Democratic House + Republican Senate at 40¢, Democratic House + Democratic Senate at 41¢.
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