2026 Primary Season Ignites – Key Races Already Priced Near Certainty
The CO-01 Democratic primary is effectively decided with Melat Kiros at 100¢ and 384k volume. The California governor primary shows Xavier Becerra at 99¢. Control of Congress is a major battleground: Democrats to win House at 81¢, Republicans to win Senate at 57¢. These markets offer early signals for general election positioning.
Cross-market probability snapshot
Will Democrats win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party
82¢Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026?: Republican Party
55¢Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027?: Before Jan 4, 2027
7¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
The CO-01 Democratic primary is effectively decided with Melat Kiros at 100¢ and 384k volume.
- 02
The California governor primary shows Xavier Becerra at 99¢.
- 03
Control of Congress is a major battleground: Democrats to win House at 81¢, Republicans to win Senate at 57¢.
Full analysis
The 2026 primary season is in full swing, with several races already priced as near-certainties. The CO-01 Democratic primary sees Melat Kiros at 100¢ with 384k volume (KXCOPRIMARY-01D26-MK). In the California governor primary, Xavier Becerra leads at 99¢ (KXCAGOVPRIMARY1ST-26). At the national level, control of the House is 81¢ for Democrats (CONTROLH-2026-D) and the Senate is 57¢ for Republicans (CONTROLS-2026-R). The SAVE Act (voter ID) has only 9¢ probability (KXSAVEACT-27-JAN04) – a key legislative marker. The most liquid markets are the primary outcomes, but traders should watch the House and Senate control contracts for responsiveness to news cycles. Volume concentrated in early primaries; later races (e.g., Michigan Senate primary) have lower liquidity. The discrepancy between House (81¢ Dem) and Senate (57¢ GOP) forecast a split government.
Related markets
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sf book CONTROLH-2026-D && sf book CONTROLS-2026-R