Election 2026: Democrats Lead House Odds (81¢), Senate Tighter
Democrats are now heavy favorites to win the House (81¢) while Republicans hold the edge for Senate (59¢). 2028 nomination markets show J.D. Vance and Gavin Newsom as early frontrunners.
Cross-market probability snapshot
Will Democrats win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party
82¢Will Republicans win the House in 2026?: Republican Party
17¢Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026?: Republican Party
55¢Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: J.D. Vance
41¢Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Gavin Newsom
20¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
Democrats are now heavy favorites to win the House (81¢) while Republicans hold the edge for Senate (59¢).
- 02
2028 nomination markets show J.D.
- 03
Vance and Gavin Newsom as early frontrunners.
Full analysis
The 2026 US midterm elections are heating up in prediction markets, with a clear Democratic advantage for the House. The market `CONTROLH-2026-D` indicates an 81% probability that Democrats will win the House, while `CONTROLH-2026-R` suggests only an 18% chance for Republicans. Senate control is less certain, with `CONTROLS-2026-R` showing a 59% probability for a Republican majority. The combination market `KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-` prices a Democratic House + Democratic Senate at 39¢. Several high-profile primary contests are active, including the race for California Governor (`KXCAGOVPRIMARY1ST-26`) where Xavier Becerra is heavily favored. The 2028 presidential cycle is also drawing attention, with J.D. Vance (42¢) leading the Republican nomination market `KXPRESNOMR-28-JDV` and Gavin Newsom (21¢) leading the Democratic race (`KXPRESNOMD-28-GN`).
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