SimpleFunctions

Markets · Category

Climate and weather prediction markets — calibrated by SF.

331 Kalshi-classified live questions across 331 Kalshi contracts, $21,845 of 24h volume. 53 sit in coin-flip territory. 276 markets moved 5cents+ in the last 24h. Refreshed every 15 minutes.

Polymarket-side classification backfill is in flight — until shipped, see the cross-venue picture under /odds?category=climate-and-weather.

Category JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/category/climate-and-weather
Screen filter
GET/api/public/screen?category=climate-and-weather
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 23 Aug 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$21.8K-59%
min $14.0Kmax $51.9K
Breadth-42%-46.0pp
min -42%max 39%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 22:30 UTC
Aug 16past 7d · UTCAug 23 · 20:23

Live contracts

331

24h volume

$21.8K

# series in cat

0

curated GO series

Contested

16%

30-70% prob

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

-81¢

KXHURCAT-26ISELLE-T1

Climate and Weather — liquidity topography (top 74 of 331 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = price changes / hour. Range: 0.2 → 1.8/h

$10$100$1,000$10,0001d7d30d90d365d1.81.00.2

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in Climate and Weather

Showing top 20 of 331

Sortable across every numeric column — IY / Cliff / Edge / RVol / Resid / 24h vol — all bounded for readability, raw on hover.

Will there be an at least 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?: Before 20275¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$5.4K
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?: Hottest71¢
IY 114%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 137%Resid —$4.6K
Will Aug 2026 be the hottest Aug ever?: Hottest ever90¢
IY 174%Cliff 9Edge —RVol 73%Resid —$3.9K
When will the next hurricane form?: Before Sep 1, 20269¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.2K
Will there be more than 2 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 219¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.0K
Will Rene become a Category 3 hurricane?: Category 3 or above5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.0K
Will Dolly be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Dolly45¢
IY 447%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 370%Resid —$788
Will Edouard be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Edouard27¢
IY 990%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$361
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii during the 2026 hurricane season?: Before 20275¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$296
Will the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season be between 2.0°C and 2.4°C?: 2.0°C to 2.4°C5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$282
Will the extent of the Arctic sea ice be below 4.3 million square km between December 19, 2025 and October 01, 2026?: Below 4.3 million sq km30¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 307%Resid —$275
Will Moke be categorized as a hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026?: Moke15¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol 589%Resid —$218
Will the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season be at least 2.5°C?: At least 2.5°C67¢
IY 80%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$200
Will Fay be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Fay14¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$177
Will Iselle become a Category 1 hurricane?: Category 1 or above52¢
IY 336%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$175
Will there be at least 1 VEI4 eruptions worldwide in 2026?: At least 116¢
IY 619%Cliff 5Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$173
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?: Oil63¢
IY 9.2%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 156%Resid —$165
Will Iselle be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Iselle61¢
IY 234%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$163
When will the next hurricane form?: Before Sep 15, 202680¢
IY 410%Cliff 4Edge —RVol 118%Resid —$159
Will there be more than 1 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?: Above 147¢
IY 410%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 306%Resid —$113
331 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in Climate and Weather

From market_changes
12h agoKalshi
Will Iselle become a Category 1 hurricane?: Category 1 or above
5¢86→5 (-81)
open →
8h agoKalshi
Will Iselle become a Category 1 hurricane?: Category 1 or above
6¢86→6 (-80)
open →
9h agoKalshi
Will Iselle become a Category 1 hurricane?: Category 1 or above
86¢6→86 (+80)
open →
13h agoKalshi
Will Iselle become a Category 1 hurricane?: Category 1 or above
86¢6→86 (+80)
open →
12h agoKalshi
Will Iselle become a Category 1 hurricane?: Category 1 or above
7¢86→7 (-79)
open →
17h agoKalshi
Will there be more than 75 tornadoes in September?: Above 75
69¢5→69 (+64)
open →
3h agoKalshi
Will there be more than 75 tornadoes in September?: Above 75
6¢69→6 (-63)
open →
17h agoKalshi
Will Lowell be categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?: Lowell
2¢61→2 (-59)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 23 Aug 2026 21:38:42 GMT.

All markets

Liquidity heatmap across both venues. /markets →

Cross-venue / Polymarket

Per-question parity map (includes Polymarket). /odds?category=climate-and-weather →

Filter & explore

IY / CRI / RV / VR cuts in this category. /screen?category=climate-and-weather →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →