Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Section 702 authority become law before May 3, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
27%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$675
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
209 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for two years become law before Jan 1, 2027
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that Congress will pass and the President will sign legislation reauthorizing FISA Section 702 surveillance authority by May 3, 2026—roughly three days from now. The 45% aggregate probability reflects significant uncertainty about whether lawmakers can move such legislation quickly through the legislative process. Section 702 is a contentious issue with both civil liberties advocates and national security officials taking strong positions, which typically slows passage. The cross-venue gap of 15 percentage points, with Polymarket pricing higher, suggests disagreement about how urgently Congress will act. The main driver of this probability is whether a clean reauthorization bill or a broader package containing Section 702 can advance through both chambers without extended debate or amendment conflicts. The immediate catalyst is the end-of-session legislative calendar over the next 72 hours, which will determine whether this authority receives priority floor time.
- ›Current legislative calendar status: whether Section 702 reauthorization is scheduled for floor votes in either chamber before May 3
- ›Status of related spending bills: the top contracts show DHS funding legislation is more heavily traded, suggesting Section 702 may be bundled into broader legislative packages that move on different timelines
- ›Amendment threat risk: proposals to modify Section 702 (privacy protections, warrant requirements) could delay passage if offered during floor debate
- ›Senate-House coordination: one chamber may pass reauthorization while the other delays, preventing both chambers from completing action within the 72-hour window
- ›Previous reauthorization patterns: Section 702 extensions have historically required multiple renewal cycles, with 2024's extension resolved relatively quickly, providing a baseline for current legislative velocity
What moved the line
- Jun 1FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)↓10pp31→21¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)↑5pp21→26¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (27% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In legislation
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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