Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2029
Leader sits at 76% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2031
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
Before Jan 1, 2030
Spread
68pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2031
1576 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 20
Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028
KXWARSHOUT-26JUL-28JAN01
Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031?: Before Jan 1, 2031
KXWARSHOUT-26JUL-31JAN01
Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2030?: Before Jan 1, 2030
KXWARSHOUT-26JUL-30JAN01
Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2029?: Before Jan 1, 2029
KXWARSHOUT-26JUL-29JAN01
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Kevin Warsh will step down as Federal Reserve chairman before January 1, 2029—roughly 18 months from now. The low probability (8%) suggests traders view his tenure as relatively secure through this window. The main factors driving this low rate are Warsh's recent appointment and typical chairmanship stability, though it could shift if economic crises occur, political pressure intensifies, or health issues emerge. The primary catalyst would be any major policy conflict with the administration, economic shock requiring dramatic action, or public statements about resignation. Contract pricing shows more confidence in stability through 2028 (4%) than through 2029 (5%), indicating markets assign only modest additional risk over the extra year.
- ›Kevin Warsh was appointed Fed chairman in 2024 and typically serves full 4-year terms; early exits are uncommon absent external shocks
- ›The 24-hour trading volume is minimal ($376 on the 2030 contract, $0 on the 2029 contract), indicating low market interest and potentially wide bid-ask spreads
- ›Economic recessions, inflation surges, or major financial crises could create political pressure for leadership change or voluntary resignation
- ›Significant policy disagreements with the sitting administration or Congress could trigger departure before term expiration
- ›Age, health status, or family circumstances of the chairman could prompt unexpected retirement, though no current indicators suggest imminent change
What moved the line
- Sep 4Before Jan 1, 2031↑15pp60→75¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 3Before Jan 1, 2031↓8pp68→60¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 1Before Jan 1, 2031↓6pp76→70¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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