Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2029

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Kevin Warsh will step down as Federal Reserve chairman before January 1, 2029—roughly 18 months from now. The low probability (8%) suggests traders view his tenure as relatively secure through this window. The main factors driving this low rate are Warsh's recent appointment and typical chairmanship stability, though it could shift if economic crises occur, political pressure intensifies, or health issues emerge. The primary catalyst would be any major policy conflict with the administration, economic shock requiring dramatic action, or public statements about resignation. Contract pricing shows more confidence in stability through 2028 (4%) than through 2029 (5%), indicating markets assign only modest additional risk over the extra year.

• ›Kevin Warsh was appointed Fed chairman in 2024 and typically serves full 4-year terms; early exits are uncommon absent external shocks
• ›The 24-hour trading volume is minimal ($376 on the 2030 contract, $0 on the 2029 contract), indicating low market interest and potentially wide bid-ask spreads
• ›Economic recessions, inflation surges, or major financial crises could create political pressure for leadership change or voluntary resignation
• ›Significant policy disagreements with the sitting administration or Congress could trigger departure before term expiration
• ›Age, health status, or family circumstances of the chairman could prompt unexpected retirement, though no current indicators suggest imminent change

What moved the line

• Aug 19Before Jan 1, 2031↓10pp76→66¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 20Before Jan 1, 2031↑10pp66→76¢ · Kalshi

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How we compute these odds