Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $2 at 4 PM ET on Jul 10
Leader sits at 96% across 15 bound outcomes, runner-up at 94%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $0.50
Outcomes
15
winner-take-all
Runner-up
94¢
Above $0.50
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$185
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 7, 2026
29 days
Venue
Kalshi
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $
Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $0.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 24?: Above $0.50
KXA100WS-26JUL24-0.500
Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $0.75 at 4 PM ET on Jul 24?: Above $0.75
KXA100WS-26JUL24-0.750
Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $1.5 at 4 PM ET on Aug 07?: Above $1.50
KXA100WS-26AUG07-1.500
Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $0.75 at 4 PM ET on Jul 17?: Above $0.75
KXA100WS-26JUL17-0.750
Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $0.75 at 4 PM ET on Jul 31?: Above $0.75
KXA100WS-26JUL31-0.750
Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $0.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 17?: Above $0.50
KXA100WS-26JUL17-0.500
Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $1.25 at 4 PM ET on Jul 31?: Above $1.25
KXA100WS-26JUL31-1.250
Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $1.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 17?: Above $1.50
KXA100WS-26JUL17-1.500
Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $1 at 4 PM ET on Jul 17?: Above $1.00
KXA100WS-26JUL17-1.000
Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $2 at 4 PM ET on Aug 07?: Above $2.00
KXA100WS-26AUG07-2.000
Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $1.75 at 4 PM ET on Aug 07?: Above $1.75
KXA100WS-26AUG07-1.750
Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $1.25 at 4 PM ET on Aug 07?: Above $1.25
KXA100WS-26AUG07-1.250
Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $1 at 4 PM ET on Aug 07?: Above $1.00
KXA100WS-26AUG07-1.000
Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $0.75 at 4 PM ET on Aug 07?: Above $0.75
KXA100WS-26AUG07-0.750
Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $0.5 at 4 PM ET on Aug 07?: Above $0.50
KXA100WS-26AUG07-0.500
Analysis
This market is assessing whether NVIDIA's A100 GPU will cost more than $2 per compute hour on July 10, 2026. The current 95% probability reflects expectations that prices will remain above this threshold, despite recent pricing pressure. The main driver is the competitive cloud computing market, where GPU pricing has been declining due to increased supply from multiple vendors and improved utilization efficiency. What could move this probability is either unexpected demand spikes that tighten GPU availability, or accelerated commoditization that pushes rental costs lower. The July 10 resolution date is a near-term checkpoint—earlier contract activity shows traders assessing intermediate price levels on July 3 and July 17, suggesting the market expects volatility around major cloud provider pricing announcements or usage reports during this period.
- ›NVIDIA A100 spot prices on major cloud platforms (AWS, Google Cloud, Azure) in the week preceding July 10, particularly any rate changes announced by providers
- ›Competing GPU availability and pricing for alternatives (H100, L40S, TPUs), which directly influences A100 rental rates through substitution pressure
- ›Monthly or quarterly cloud computing pricing reports or earnings guidance released in early July that would signal demand or supply shifts
- ›Trading volume and implied volatility in the related contracts for July 3 and July 17 thresholds, which suggest market confidence in near-term stability versus longer-term pricing pressure
- ›Historical A100 pricing trend over the 10 days immediately before July 10, compared to the baseline assumption embedded in the 95% contract price
What moved the line
- Jul 2Above $0.75↑41pp17→58¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 2Above $0.50↑40pp42→82¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 8Above $1.25↓29pp40→11¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9Above $0.75↑28pp49→77¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 6Above $0.75↑27pp57→84¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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